Image: steembottracker.com Screenshot
I've seen a couple of posts lately that picked up the bid bot ROI topic. I'm taking this occasion to give a "stripped-down current state" picture. Since I have zero experience with bid bots since months, I decided to better ask the blockchain than to try it out myself :)
- get all SBD bids to bots on May 24th 2019 (yesterday)
- get all posts where the bot then voted on the post in the transfer memo
- check the difference between the SBD amount sent and the value of the vote in SBD at the time of this writing or a couple of hours earlier to get the ROI.
This approach does not contain STEEM bids, it does not properly represent services like @smartmarket or others where the actual votes come from other accounts, and it obviously leaves out any kind of votes from encrypted memo or off-chain payments. And most importantly, it leaves out the up to 7 days window in which the STEEM-per-SBD price can change between the time of the vote and the post payout.
In total, there were 69 different bid bots active with SBD bids+votes on May 24th.
Bid amount vs. vote value
The x axis shows the bid amounts in SBD and the y axis shows the corresponding bot vote value also in SBD. Each dot is one bot vote. The orange line shows the points where the vote value would match exactly the bid amount. The green line shows where the author share of the vote value (75%) would match exactly the bid amount. You can see that most of the bids are around or slightly above this green line. This means that the author share of the vote value corresponds to around the bid value, potentially with a slight profit. The points close to zero vote value with a non-zero bid amount mostly correspond to @smartmarket or @minnowbooster where a significant share of the paid votes come from third party accounts. Those can be ignored here.
ROIs for individual bots
This data can now easily be broken down to the individual bots. However, this has to be treated carefully. The data is from a single day only, and a couple of bots only had a hand full of votes throughout the whole day, limiting statistical significance on this data. I'm showing only those with at least 5 votes. But didn't we always wanted to know which bot gives the best ROI? ;)
I've calculated the mean ROI by summing up all bids from that day and put that number in relation to the sum of the corresponding vote values per day.
And here's the data again in tabular form:
Clear winner is @drotto here, but the typical bid there is 0.001 SBD. The majority of bots had a ROI of 0-30%, assuming that the STEEM/SBD price doesn't change until payout. Bots standing out with high returns also for higher bids are @booster and @ocdb. This is quite considerable, I would have expected much lower returns in general! (Or did I screw up anything?) @smartmarket has to be again excluded here since the majority of votes after bids to @smartmarket come from other accounts and this data only takes the vote from @smartmarket itself into account. The same partly applies to @minnowbooster.
Speaking of winners: The award for the most bot votes received on that day goes to @apix, with 67 bot bids on a series of
worthless spam likely automated sports betting quotes. Let's see what @steemflagrewards thinks about this...
The typical bid-bot votes on that day gave a vote value such that, after curation is removed, the author got 0-30% more than the value of the bid. Using bots gave a quite positive ROI in most cases, I didn't expect this. However, this is a small time range, does not take any changes in the STEEM price into account and lust looking at the ROI number does not take the bid amount into account.
Am I stupid to leave out the opportunity to get a 0-30%+ on an additional bot invest? I just feels so wrong to play the bot game...