BTC - a view from the Mountain
- Design to be optimized
- Further indicators to be added. Suggestions welcome.
December also not good to BTC investor even though we saw a rally up from mid of December. January is typically a bad month for BTC - we this be inverse this time like Nov + Dec were?
4th quarter a desaster only topped by Q1 this year. The year with -73.4% a dream for those holding short positions ... but only for them.
Q1 - typically not a strong quarter. We will see - may be the phase to bottom out.
Changed the MAs to 7 / 14 / 30
Full Bear market indicated
Heikin Ashi - monthly
Strong bear Mode
Valuation: 114 - above channel (top at 90).
Signal retested 100 moving down.
- strong buy -
Below 2.4 x the MA 200 = buy signal.
Activity / Momentum indicator
Trending up - peaked and is back at around 150'000 transactions (constantly 200'000+ we are looking for). The peak is probably explained by coinbase reorganizing cold storage (8% of all bitcoin were moved).
slightly going down - more people capitulating?
transactions per day
uptrend - reastablished. Looks strong - with around 300'000 transactions about 75% of ATH (400'000)
With active addresses declining it seems like the intensity of the activity of those on board increased.
Google search BTC USD
10 % of ATH - slightly trending up (see last 90 days chart).
BTC Infrastructure (Mining) related
Hashrate is stabilizing.
Moving up slightly - first time since 6'000 failed.
Overall picture and scenarios
A scenario of woo bull - just one which resonates with me most. I thought I share it with you guys.
And another scenario from my friend @passion-ground. He put this together quite some time ago as viable option and it seems this becomes reality. Interesting to see that it could match with the scenario of woo bull.
Old chart log scale
I found this little chart from 2014 - middle of the bear market. Probably a lot of people loosing hope that day. That chart made the insane looking prediction that BTC will reach 10'000 USD by 22-Nov-2017 (actual btc close that day was 8'214).
What a crazy guy that must have been..
Chart predicts we are going to see 125'000 by 2021 - not going to happen or maybe it does??!!??