BTC - a view from the Mountain - 2019 January

2년 전

BTC - a view from the Mountain


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  • Design to be optimized
  • Further indicators to be added. Suggestions welcome.

Performance statistic

monthly performance:

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.04.49.png
After December being rough - January was rather calm. Lets see for February.

quarterly/half-yearly/yearly performance

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.04.59.png
4th quarter a desaster only topped by Q1 this year. The year with -73.4% a dream for those holding short positions ... but only for them.
Q1 - typically not a strong quarter. We will see - may be the phase to bottom out.

Trend indicator


Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.15.38.png
Full Bear market indicated - 7 week is picking up though

Heikin Ashi - monthly

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.20.19.png
Strong bear Mode

Value indicator

NVT ratio/signal

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.22.43.png
Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.21.58.png

Valuation: 130 - above channel (top at 90).
Signal - sideways close below 100

Mayer multiple

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.25.01.png

Activity / Momentum indicator

Network momentum

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.28.54.png
Turning back down 149'000 transactions (constantly 200'000+ we are looking for).

active adresses

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.31.50.png
Moving sideways.

transactions per day

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.34.12.png
Still looks strong - with around 350'000 transactions about 87.5% of ATH (400'000)
With active addresses declining it seems like the intensity of the activity of those on board increased.

Google search BTC USD

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.40.18.png
Back down to 6% of ATH - nobody cares.

BTC Infrastructure (Mining) related

Hash rate

Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.42.51.png
Hashrate is getting back up.


Bildschirmfoto 2019-02-02 um 20.44.42.png
Moving sideways.

Overall picture and scenarios

Woo Bull

A scenario of woo bull - just one which resonates with me most. I thought I share it with you guys.


And another scenario from my friend @passion-ground. He put this together quite some time ago as viable option and it seems this becomes reality. Interesting to see that it could match with the scenario of woo bull.
BTC - 11-27-2018  Bear Market Update.png

Old chart log scale

I found this little chart from 2014 - middle of the bear market. Probably a lot of people loosing hope that day. That chart made the insane looking prediction that BTC will reach 10'000 USD by 22-Nov-2017 (actual btc close that day was 8'214).
What a crazy guy that must have been..
Chart predicts we are going to see 125'000 by 2021 - not going to happen or maybe it does??!!??

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Good summary man!

Posted using Partiko iOS

What a call by the guy who produced the last chart!


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