Bakkt is a blessing in disguise.

10개월 전

Since BAKKT is the -only- institutional on-ramp that is "backed" by stringent regulatory frameworks, it's impact on the crypto-space is going to be downplayed despite being hugely important in the longer run.

Institutional players had no confidence to purchase Bitcoin -anywhere- prior to the launch of BAKKT because there was no way large players were going to commit large amounts of their net worth at significant risk to the current off-shore unregulated sham exchanges which dominate the space.

Since BAKKT is settling in physical bitcoin, and draws it's liquidity from the intercontinental exchange overall, it now only takes all those trillions of dollars already sitting on that exchange a moment of interest to start making bets on bitcoin through a properly regulated channel now. The threat of settlement in Bitcoin means unlike the cash settled futures on CME, BAKKT will be participating in the overall spot market of Bitcoin.

The problem is, we're seeing an exchange of market maker hands as contrary to public opinion and popular belief, institutions won't just market buy up bitcoin and make it go moon without properly securing a core position with lower cost basis. I believe that the drop now, and potential further drop to below 8k (but above 6) for the next few months will be that opportunity for the institutions to quietly start accumulating their real core positions.

In terms of the global macro economic climate, a couple of interesting macro factors are beginning to claw at high net worth individuals which may provide the impetus for the increase in adoption / investment (not necessarily the direct use as MOE) in the coming year or two. For one, the drop of interest rates to zero and potentially to negative rates is the precursor to further Quantitative Easing. The printing press only serves as a function of dilution to every holder of sovereign money and hits the wealthiest people the hardest in terms of aggregate loss of value (in reality their quality of life will be unchanged). It is of course their best interest to hedge in anticipation of this. But to add to this fact, there is now talks of a "Billionaire" tax in the US which is aiming to redistribute the wealth from the top down. As absurd and as unlikely as that sounds, the very threat of that should instigate at-least some of the ultra high net worth individuals to find other places to store value.

Bitcoin of course is not -yet- a reliable store of value, and neither is it a reliable medium of exchange, but it does serve as a highly speculative (perhaps 1% allocation) asset in a basket of assets which wealthy investors may spread their risk into and only a small fraction allocated to Bitcoin / Crypto space can send the price soaring to above and beyond the highs we've seen so far.

To facilitate this gradual shift and distribution in global wealth, we arrive back at BAKKT and the ICE, where all the large hedge funds (who manage the UHNWI's money) start with deploying cash to these risk on hedge type instruments. Despite the lacklustre launch, and obvious sell the news event, the crypto space should be cheering for a victory even as we take a few steps back before several more forward.

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