Since Mid-2016, Bitcoin has had 6 major bear and bull market cycles

4년 전

As you know, Bitcoin has died 927 times, and come back to life after every single one of them.

Ok, it hasn't actually died that many times, but I think you get my point.

In times like we are experiencing currently many people are left wondering, is this it, is this the big one where bitcoin finally doesn't come back?

While that is certainly possible I think we should look at recent history to gain a little perspective.

Check out this chart put out by Fundstrat Global Advisors:


(Source: https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung)

Just going back to mid-2016 you can see that bitcoin has dropped by over 25% on 6 separate occasions.

After which it rallied by more than 75% in every single one of them, not including this most recent time.

Not only that, but after each drop it has gone on to make new highs.

Basically, bitcoin has traded like a penny stock, on steroids.

This time is not exactly like the others.

As you can this most recent drop hasn't fully been updated on the chart yet.

It would make for the largest drop percentage wise over this time period by a significant margin at roughly 62%, while most of the other drops topped out around the 40% mark.

However, this run up was also different in terms of its magnitude.

It was up roughly 550% before it dipped!

Which was more than double the move in any of the other run ups during this time period.

Which means, perhaps this move was just making up for skipping the last dip along the way?!

Final thoughts:

Yes this drop has been scary, but looking at recent history and the giant run up we saw preceding this drop, it certainly wasn't out of the realm of possibilities.

Looking at the last few years of trading shows me that large drops and subsequent recoveries have been somewhat the norm for bitcoin.

So, while this time could very well be different (very dangerous words in Finance by the way), the more likely outcome could be more of the same phenomena that we've seen pretty consistently over the last 18 months.

You decide.

Stay informed my friends.

Follow me: @jrcornel

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i think Bitcoin is new technology like the Internet of the 90s and yes it can be new currency in the future. Because we are transitioning to a new age. Transition periods are as painful as they were in the past. But In the coming years everyone will get used to the new system and new currency.

Some healthy consolidation before continuing upward. Just ask yourself, are more people beginning to doubt the value of their nation's fiat and search for alternative assets? I think the answer is clear and this is a trend that will continue for several more years, if not decades.

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It seems to have taken on a life of its own and while everyone's trying to work it out it just keeps on doing its thing

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As long as we calculate the value of Bitcoin in dollars the FIAT currency system is in best health. Or wouldn t you cash out your bitcoin in order to get the dollars out? I would.

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Very good point. The fact that everyone talks in terms of dollars tells me we are still a ways away.

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Every currency is quotes in terms of other currencies to allow for exchange. We even quote gold in terms of FIAT currencies for exchange purposes. It keeps me from having to pack up oz. of gold and shipping it to you.

I think Bitcoin as well as some others will survive for good reasons.

Bitcoin because it was the first mover and adopted by a "black market". As long as they are willing to use it a measure of exchange of goods and services it will survive.

Steem or SBD survives because it is earned by value added work. These blog post are the product of someones efforts and brains that ads value to someone else. So it is a innovative way to measure effort and then assign value to that effort based on the benefits someone else get from that effort.

Ripple (XRP - Google backed crypto) survives because it offers real value in making the financial markets more efficient. Transfer dollars is generally inefficient as a ledger between banks. They could use gold, that is even harder because of its physical nature. So , at least ideally, something like ripple is fast and can be a proxy for value (as long as you can eventually convert to other forms of currency). Plus organizations like American Express (plus others) are experimenting with it for its intended use. As they become more confident it will grow in value.

These are the kind of things that I look for when researching crypto. Is there a real benefit to someone somewhere. It has to be more than just another currency created by automated systems without real cost.

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Yes @maven360, this is the logic I keep coming back to and why I got into crypto. People are looking for alternatives to store their value and that will only become increasingly so.

Great post @jrcornel. Yes, that Dec-Jan $400 billion dollar market cap explosion put a lot of energy into the system and thus a lot to blow off and that's what's happening. Way to keep things steady and focused.

Good article and a more sensible view than some you hear , cheers mike

Great post @jrcornel. I hope soon BTC will adopt bullish trend.

To put it in a little perspective, there have been many other greater percentage drops since bitcoins inception and each time it has recovered.

We are still up approx 800% since this time last year.

Additionally, many more people are signing up every day. Exchanges have improved back end infrastructure and hired more staff plus apps such have Robin Hood have added or are in the process of adding crypto options.

When this downturn is over and things turn around there will be many more people in a position to buy in!

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I think you could be extremely right about that

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Is extremely right better than totally right?

Nice chart from Fundstrat. Puts the recent drop into perspective.

You have analyzed wonderfully. It is so simple to comprehend your whole point. There is an air of positivism in your very informative blog. I am hopeful that Bitcoin will come to life again in couple of days as your analysis tells us, so are the other currencies which will rebound.

Thank you for this great insight in the world of crypto currency.

As informative as this seems, It still bears with some sense of danger with it. Bitcoin can not die, there are just too many recent adopters. Nevertheless, we can only sit back and wait.

I wish you could write a post about what will happen to post rewards when sbd finally comes back to $1 as initially proposed.

Also, I wish to know if there are considerable intentional efforts being made to make sure sbd comes back to $1.

I am just a little scared for my post rewards. It will begin to become less when converted to fiat.

Good job @jrcornel

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I'm really really really excited about it all, and that has to be better than bashing your head against a wall, surely...

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I am posting here since quite some times, haven t get any substantial rewards. The Steem system is a bit crooked. Unfortunately.

  ·  4년 전

I see the ending of the A-B-C 5-3-5 wave now. I guess we have almost done with the correction:

I think that the financial institutions have made every effort possible to bring Bitcoin down, this has shown the great amount of support for this new economy and banks are scared of losing this type of control.
Bitcoin's dip is due to the incredible amount of fear that is being fed to new investors. but as they continue learning about the possibilities, real solutions and use cases crypto has to offer we find ourselves with a new support line.
Whe confidence comes back, Bitcoin really shows those steroidal pumps towards prosperity.

I stay with BITCON 100% but I choose STEEM 200%
Screen Shot 2018-02-04 at 11.03.24 AM.png

Came to the same conclusion when I saw this two days ago
Marketcap.png

Made a post about it if you want to read more https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@alvalvaro/crypto-bubble-burst-where

Thanks friend for this post.plz visit my blog and vote

Really eye opening thanks.

Yes this is write this is role of market increase and decreasing the rate

Really great post..
And i agree with you sir..
Can I resteemit your post sir..?

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Of course. No need to ask.

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Thanks sir resteemited ...✌✌✌😊😊

must visit
bitcoin: Last 3 months in 46 sec https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@measif/kzglxlad
if like then upvote .

So where will bitcoin go from here? Towards $20000 or toward $5000?

Lets wait for the unsecurity factors to get resolved. On my blog you find further informations on an outlook for Bitcoion and altcoins in the next weeks.

your post is really good..

I am waiting for the 40% corrections after it flies up to $40,000.
These kinds of moves will be a hellava ride.

thanks for the information @jrconel tapih bitcoin sakarang greatly increased the price,

Thanks for your technical analysis the indicator have show the behavior of bitcoin.

Very informative post..thanks for sharing it with us

I do believe you're right and it will be as you have said; having said this I could be wrong that I'm right and right that I'm wrong, but either way it's a fun ride...holding...

Thanks for sharing! I still believe BTC is a good investment in the long run.

One has to wonder if the strength of the downward move has been exacerbated by the fact that BTC can now be shorted on the CME which of course is the bankers favourite playground. JP Morgan etc will certainly wish to destroy Bitcoin utterly and with their massive financial footprint it is not difficult for them to place large shorts on CME then sell heavily (they will have gradually been accumulating) their holdings on the exchanges to manipulate the price wherupon their short position pays large dividends.

resteemed such a wordly and helpful blog ! @jrcornel

Well i hope that you are right and that Bitcoin retain its glory after the fall. From the given chart, it does show that it has risen up in the last few months🤔.
Well let's just hope that the Bitcoin gets back to its potential.
Thanks for the information. Have a nice day ahead.!!

How many times in your life have you heard about a brand new asset class?

Like every embryonic market, it’s volatile, there are not enough participants and liquidity, a few larger players have the ability to shift the price in seconds to make the markets move. It’s a jungle, for now.

I believe in 5–10 years we will see stability in this space, I wouldn’t rule out Litecoin and Ethereum futures either, I strongly believe that Bitcoin was merely a test bed for other futures product, reason Bitcoin was chosen first was because it’s battle-hardened and has stood the test of time.

Is it a bubble? Maybe?

Buy and hold for the long term, that’s my advice.

Good post, I really liked your post

I thnk many people are still seeing Bitcoin—and all other cryptocoins—as a magical thing that will keep going up and up and up.
It's a market! More volatile than others, but a market, nonetheless. So, it's subject to offer and demand. Every bullish period have its bearish one.
But the problem is trying to figure it out as it were some kind of magic.

Congratulations @jrcornel, this post is the sixth most rewarded post (based on pending payouts) in the last 12 hours written by a Superhero or Legend account holder (accounts hold greater than 100 Mega Vests). The total number of posts by Superhero and Legend account holders during this period was 45 and the total pending payments to posts in these categories was $5072.37. To see the full list of highest paid posts across all accounts categories, click here.

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I think you just have to assume it is 1998/99 dot com. Everyone knows there is something big there and everyone is rushing in to be a part of it

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The HODL will pay

Thanks my frends nice post

yes bitcoin is here to stay for a long term period

There's nothing like cumulative data to put things in perspective.

I personally think Bitcoin is dead with almost zero use cases (the sole remaining ones being a major trading pair -- which every other coin does better -- and very large transactions -- which are still cheaper with every other coin), but I certainly don't think Bitcoin will end the year down.

Ok, it hasn't actually died that many times,

LOL…You got me….I felt like a little kid being told Santa is real. I was hanging on your every word…927 times…Ha!

So, while this time could very well be different

Geez, I’m reminded of people who recently sold their homes to buy into BTC. I could see their logic, if they were in a place to risk making ’multiple-times’ the value of the property in swift stead.

But, let’s say they sold their home for $350K, invested $250K in BTC; and, decided to lease a home for a year to ‘earn’ their money back and then some. If BTC bounces back from this latest dip, and they have a set limit for HODL, they will still fair better long-term.

I’m new to crypto; and a novice to say the least. I don’t want to jinx things; but, I expect BTC to eventually do a side x side by with the USD; maybe even surpassing it when people learn how little interest the latter gains.

You noted that this is a first in the size of the dip. I sense, as some have alluded, that there's a minor 'coup' going on to bring BTC, and all crypto, down.

Thanks for this post!

927 times…lol! Ha!

Peace.

Yay for hope!

Do you think the opening of the Bitcoin futures market has anything to do with the recent market fluctuations?

I love your remark, "...bitcoin has traded like a penny stock, on steroids."

True dat.

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That is a very good question. Considering that first large drop we had also just so happened to land on the exact same day as the first options expiration, I'd say they certainly are having some effect. Though, I am not sure how much.

Keep it up..... @jrcornel (75)

@jrcornel no to explain anything after see you graph. I am speechless and which explain the entire journey of bitcoin or altcoin. Now i too get confident that i can recover my losses. Thank you very much for this post.

This most recent drop was accompanied by major drops in equity, bond and commodities markets too. Is this one different? It certainly is!

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If that was part of the cause, and stocks continue to slide over the coming days/weeks like some people think, what does that mean for bitcoin?

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I don’t think altcoin fundamentals have changed as much as the price suggests. I think we’ll see further declines next week due to general bearish mood

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If stock market slides we'll get to see if crypto is indeed a new asset class.

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I also see it as different this time. I am waiting for the 6.300 dollar resistance line or even the 4.500 dollars to buy. On my blog I made a list of the most potential known threats to bitcoin in the coming weeks.

It's not just Bitcoin, is a copy/paste graphic for 99% of alt-coins.

I am positive with steem and bitcoin it will soon rise. I am fully determined. Steem will have its breakout any day...
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thank you for your analysis and again thanks for your informatuonal post

Bitcoin itself is, in my opinion, simply outdated and it will, sooner or later, be replaced by things like Ripple, IOTA, Litecoin, ADA,... you name it.

The environmental impact is high, the fees make it non-worthwhile to work with on a daily basis, transactions are slow (or hecka expensive), and the blockchain is not scaling up very well so everything's going to halt sooner or later.

However, cryptocurrencies and the blockchain-technology (or the "Tangle" from IOTA) will prevail and might come in handy for a-damn-lot of technologies sooner or later, so their price will rise once again.

Bitcoin probably won't rise much again in the next years, but other "Altcoins" most likely will, so my advice:

If you don't need your money invested in cryptos right now - Keep them!
It's ludicrous to sell now.

My assumption is that we will see a rise in prices again, and a normalization, like the one happening right now, after that will follow. So, I am going to sell on the next big spike and hope I do the right thing. ;)

BTC is making some foundations to go higher than ever!
As we all believe in this technology and the revolutionary potential, it can´t die before birth... cryptocurrencies are only now being talked about (like a 9 month pregnancy) people start talk about the new "baby" that´s coming up and when it borns there are a lot of gifts for the "baby" and is parents... this analogy is what we are verifying in the crypto world.

According to the firm Autonomous Next, the number of hedge funds investing in digital assets like Bitcoin has grown rapidly to more than 100. Since the launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in December 2017, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone why the price of Bitcoin is down 50% from the high.

bitcoin.PNG

Only Retail Investors chase price and buy high and sell low, while the Professionals buy low and sell high. The Hedge Funds have purposely sold Bitcoin futures to get in a better price.

At the moment, there is a war taking place between the buyers (Hedge Funds) and the sellers (Retail Investors) called capitulation. That line in the sand was at $9000. Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains, by selling, in an effort to get out of the market. Capitulations are outcomes that result from the maximum psychological and financial pain that can be endured by a group before throwing in the towel. The Retail Investors are throwing in the towel after seeing a more than 50% correction in the Bitcoin price to the buyers, the Hedge Funds. With 100s of millions of dollars to invest, we are witnessing an accumulation phase by the Hedge Funds between $6000 and $9000.

The Hedge Funds are loading up and buying from the Retail Investors. But to fill all their buy orders, as the sell orders dry up, price must go down to the next stack of sell orders. We are approaching what I believe will be the bottom of bitcoin at $6000. My first target is $12,000 and my second target is $17,000 over the next 3 - 9 months.

The easy money has been made over the last 12-18 months. With the big boys in the game now, the rules have changes. The question is, are you ready to play to win with a new play book?

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.

bitcoin.PNG