Bitcoin Bulls Hit Back! Suckers Rally or Real?

6개월 전


Bitcoin has broken back above $10,000. Volume remains lackluster as of now.


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In today’s video we’ll discuss where price may be heading next, key areas to watch and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.


Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

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Hi workin2005,

Preliminaries: This is not finacial advice!

tl;dr; I wait.

We have bearish divergence on the weekly as well(27.05 - 24.06)! (Higher high(9000 -> 13900) and lower low on the RSI (79.62 --> 77.41)). That may have already played out. But we should point to it cause this was /the/ shift of the weekly trend!

The pattern from 25.03 till now is a huge broadening rising wedge which is typically bearish and will break to the downside. The target is the entrypoint of the pattern - in this case around 4000. On the log scale we just broke the bottom line of that pattern. Till now we have not broken the line to upside again - we were just rejected at it(I used the wicks of the pattern - a different line than you used).
So we are still below the trendline - the weekly pattern is very bearish. I think we will see bitcoin trading at 4000 by September.

One further very important fib-level to mention is the .86. Back in 2018 we had a strong resistance at the .618 fib-level on the daily. Since End of 2018 the bots shifted to the .86 fib-level on the daily. The second high (9.Jul 19)was exactly the .86 level.

Taking this we will not see bitcoin trading above 12660. This will perfectly fit to the time fib extension and the pattern-baseline of this wedge. Around 6. Aug +- a few days we will see the first massive move which I guess is to the downside. It would be very interesting if we really break this trendline to the upside.

All in all we have a huge A wave from end of 2017 till Dec 2018, then a big B till now and we are entering C now. The C wave will potentially be correcting to the .786 fib level of the overall down trend(750 USD at the peak).

750 would also perfectly fit to a Schiff-Pitchfork. The Schiff-Pitchfork median line is at around 8000 now. THis will be broken and will act as the next resistance - smaller waves. It already acted as support and resistance in June 2017, Sep 2017, 16 Nov 2018, May 2019 and we are now slowly drifting towords it. Using 6400 as heavy support and this median line as a resistance - we have a perfect ABC wave to 750 USD. So the Weekly C is build of a daily ABC correction.

As mentioned in my last comment on the last video it also would fit the volume range. At the peak value of 2017 we had around 200k Bitcoins traded at Bitstamp. We were never even close to this peak again. We need to see the final selloff which will be shown in terms of the amount of Bitcoins traded. On Bitstamp this will be around 200k. Yes the overall bitcoins which are traded is changing from each cycle to the next. But a cycle is not over till we will see a similar(at least 90%) amount of bitcoins traded on each exchange on the bottom compared to what was traded on that exchange on the peak level.

Apart from all this technical stuff that can be argued over and over - everybody will see a bullish or bearish scenario somewhere.:
Personally I want to see the trading-bots shift to the 1.0 level for a period of time - at least 6 months like we had in 2015. Then we can change to a real healthy bullish scenario. This is the timeframe I will buy in for the long term - bitcoin and altcoins.

We are all trading against bots!!! There is little psychology in it!

Cheers

·

Hey Bud! Good to hear from you. Wow...you've gone all in on that bearish scenario. We've discussed most (not all) of the points you made in prior videos. The only ABC that's possible is on log scale. It's possible on a large, macro level...but there's about 5 other counts that are also possible. Personally, I don't believe any of them are productive to discuss. I've seen the most brilliant elliot traders get humbled very quickly in this market.
It's great to look at all possibilities, but you seem to be ignoring every bullish indication we've seen over the last 6 months. Again...we may see a $4K bitcoin...even lower. That's possible. But, be very careful saying anything with so much certainly, especially when there are so many counter arguments which we've discussed over the last few months.
Putting my bias aside, some of the best analysts in the world believe the bottom is in for very good reason. They may be wrong, but that's the beauty of being a trader. You make money regardless of direction, just so long as it's volatile.
As far as psychology not being a factor...I'm afraid I'd STRONGLY disagree. Fear a greed are what drive this market. Yes bots are a big factor. But you may misunderstand how bots operate. Most are reactionary. They scalp. They're also all programmed differently and constantly updated for the owners personal bias...at least many are. Some aren't...but those are in the minority.
Bottom line, psychology plays a HUGE role in trading...even with today's bots. In fact, many have argued even more so. If market makers and/or whales can find the trend in the majority of bots, they can drive the market much easier one way or another...which can quickly cause panic (or greed) programming...which reverses the whole thing.
Anyway...you do what you feel is right. My macro bias remains bullish. Even though we may see further down side over the coming month, I believe the bottom is in. That said, I'll change that bias in a heartbeat if/when appropriate. As I said, I'm not married to any one position. As long as the market moves (up or down), I'm happy. Volatility is where the money is made.
All the best my friend 😉