I wasn't able to make a report last week due to a lack of time even though a lot happened in the market with the Price of WIN totally exploding. Things have cooled down a bit by now so it's a good time to take a look at what exactly happened / is happening.
WINK ExplosionIn my report 3 weeks ago (See Post), the price of 1M win was 428$ which was the point where I recovered my full investment into WIN still keeping most of my bag I cost-averaged into during the last year with a final buy when the price was at 63$ for 1M WIN (See Wink Discount ?). It felt like the train had left the station at 428$ but crypto being crypto it exploded all the way up to around 3000$ for 1M WIN. I did unfreeze half (10M) of my bag I had left to take profit but made the most expensive misclick of my life hitting unfreeze instead of release, resetting the 48-hour timer when the price was around 28000$ for 1M WIN to see the inevitable correction. I did manage to take some profit at a lower price (around 0.0018$) converting it into other crypto coins.
Reason for Massive Price IncreaseFrom what I currently understand, there currently is a massive inflow of new retail investors and WIN seems to be one of the coins they all believe will hit 0.1$, 0.2$ going 100x easy because it's "cheap" at 0.002$ similar to Doge / XRP / ...
I don't know exactly what caused this interest spike, but the price increase gave a lot of attention to the coin with Google Trends searches for Wink Coin going parabolic
With the price increase, more people started talking about it on Twitter and a lot of no-name YouTubers who never covered it before the pump started to make videos on it (see Youtube Search Wink Coin). All of them being extremely bullish on the coin stating that it will continue to moon like crazy.
Wink FundamentalsI have been covering WIN for about a year now keeping close track of the dividends and the fundamentals to try and find good entry/exit points. This has worked great for buying it cheap but to identify a potential top it's a whole different thing as fundamentals are blown out of the window during bullish times like this. I have always looked at the expected dividends based on the 21-day & 100-day moving averages combined with the amount of WIN which is being frozen.
Based on the dividends from last week compared to the current price of WIN, the weekly dividends come at around +0.15% which is way below where it used to be around +0.70% on average in the past. All of this while the lowest amount of WIN is being frozen as many that had WIN have been unfreezing to take profit while few of the new WIN holders seem to be freezing their coins.
Where 160 Billion WIN used to be frozen 50+ weeks ago, now it is sitting only at around 48 Billion. Knowing there is a total supply of around 999 Billion, this leaves a huge amount of potential pressure on the dividends in case more would get frozen over time. If anything, the liquidity and availability to buy WIN is excellent on Binance and Kucoin along with many other exchanges. Binance also enables margin trading on it and the average daily trading volume on WIN is now over 1 billion which is massive.
The 21-day average Dividend payouts in dollars are also at an all-time high at the moment. This is mainly because TRX increased in price while fewer WIN is frozen and not because there has been major growth in users.
I do expect the popularity for WIN along with the price increase to result in a lot more retail gamblers to find their way on the platform increasing the numbers over time.
The 100-day moving-average dividends are currently at an all-time high of 0.16$ for 1M WIN and they are expected to go up more as the 21-day average now is at around 0.30$ daily Dividends for 1M WIN which comes at 110$ on a yearly basis for currently a ~1740$ investment or +6.3% APY.
I always mentioned in the past how the returns vs price were insane for WIN in the past and how potential future growth was totally neglected which now clearly shows in the chart of price vs expected yearly dividends.
Expectations & Plans Moving ForwardAfter what happened, I honestly have no clue how high this thing can go knowing how much hype there is around WIN among retail investors. Based on logic and numbers, I would not be surprised to see it fall all the way back to 0.001$ but than again, I also thought 0.00426$ was likely to see a correction a couple weeks back. Fundamentally, the platform is pretty strong with a lot of liquidity and volume while it is very likely more and more people will start to use it to gamble their money away as crypto becomes more mainstream. They certainly have some kind of network effect in the crypto gambling space which is of massive value. I do believe WIN is in a strong position and it has the potential to be worth more in the future even though I currently see it as overvalued. I do plan to keep at least 10M frozen for the long term collecting the dividends each day seeing where it all will go. If there is ever a time when I have reasons to believe it's massively undervalued, I will be happy to add to my bags again.
Right now, I like sportbet.one and their SBET token in a similar way how I liked WIN back when it was below 100$ for 1M win. I did use part of the profit taken for the WIN I sold to increase on my SBET bag getting it from 1.1 Million SBET to 1.6 Million SBET. All the reasons why I believe WIN is currently overvalued work in favor of SBET being undervalued. The total market cap is still only around 3.2 Million Dollar while the weekly expected dividend come at a yearly return expectation of +26.2% ROI with 97.5M of the circulating supply frozen and still major potential growth ahead. I also actually like the platform itself and use it at times. The one major downside is that they have a long road ahead when it comes down to user adoptions and that won't be easy. Right now, they have an average of 100+ users weekly and there are no real signs yet of this going up anytime soon even though they have a great product.
The weekly dividends remain strong around 0.504% weekly. I do really like the current value proposition this coin offers and have it as one of my ultra low-cap gambles with massive upside potential if they succeed to grow over time. The returns are also great if they just manage to keep what they have right now.
For a Full Guide on Sportbet.one and the SBET token check Guide To Decentralized Sports Betting #1 | Sportbet.one
Personal Gambling Dapp Portfolio
I'm down to 14M WIN frozen right now but added 600k SBET with some of the profit I took on WIN which now for the first time saw my weekly earnings go above 100$. My current gambling dapp dividend portfolio esistst of 14M WIN / 1.6M SBET / 10k TRX / 20 LIVE | 2271 RAKE. I continue to be interested in adding another gambling dapps that pay the losses from the gambler to those holding a token that can't be mined. So far I haven't found another good one yet.