The Cycles Of Bitcoin - Get Ready for a paradigm shift!

4개월 전

Screen Shot 2019-02-09 at 10.13.06 PM.png

See full analysis on trading view

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/LZLdkUG1-The-Cycles-Of-Bitcoin-Get-Ready/

At the very beginning of 2013, I started investing in Bitcoin . My approach to accumulation is Dollar Cost Averaging ( DCA ). I am a very big believer in the mental aspect of accumulation. This means that if I am utilizing DCA because I am extremely long on Bitcoin , I would like to DCA when the price is down - at least for the short term. It is the essence of "Buy The Dip". It does create great trading potential, however, I do not Buy The Dip because I want to trade.

There are 5 things that I use in technical analysis in finding the best possible area to accumulate in the short term. They are:

  1. Key support & resistance areas found within the .618 - .786 channel on Fibonacci Retracement
  2. Breakout targets on both the downside & upside utilizing traditional patterns like triangles and wedges
  3. The confluence of 50EMA & 200EMA on daily charts with the above 2 indicators
  4. The combination of slower momentum oscillators & faster moving - - i.e. RSI & Stoch RSI
  5. Lastly - which some disagree with - is the historical data that we have on Bitcoin in terms of the flow and movements of BTC .

For the purpose of transparency, throughout the year I did not think that BTC would break below $5k. This is also why I mentioned on videos throughout the year that $3,500 - $5,500 area is an extremely great price to accumulate in my opinion.

The purpose of explaining all of this is because it is the foundation of what you see on the screen.

Long term there are some more things that play into the movement of Bitcoin:

Bitcoin thus far has followed a pattern of 3 Events:

  1. Halving - The amount of brand new mined BTC is cut in half for miners. Also, the price earned for mining 1 BTC is also cut in half.
  2. All Time High - 1 Year after the halving you see BTC reaching a new ATH
  3. After ATH is reached, you see consolidation and sell-off in BTC price. This is the correction phase.

Each cycle is highlighted on the chart. Both past and SPECULATIVE present. You will see a steady decrease in % gains in each cycle. This is normal.

Important to note: You will also see the key area of .786 on the Fibonacci retracement (red lines) plays a crucial role in defining the bottom range.

None of this takes into account the synergistic position and momentum within the weekly RSI

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Great post this is the second chart I’m seeing with the same trajectory. I believe were in accumulation period right now with a market reversal coming soon after the longest bear market in bitcoin’s history. Im BTC long too definitely but I would look to take allot of profits around the 75,000 levels and sell it all once market reversal is confirmed and wait to buy back in again. I hodled through the last bull market all the way till now.
I learned my lesson. I was completely new thought we were going to a million without understanding markets then. Ive learned allot since then.
I followed and upvoted you. I liked your post. 👍

Posted using Partiko iOS

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I really appreciate it! Based on these technicals and all past BTC data ( and assuming this pattern repeats again as it has 4-5 times already), my estimate is the market will pump to roughly 90,000 by April or May 2020 but definitely within this estimate, there is a margin of error, I'm looking between 70k to 100k. From there expect pull back to 20kish march/april 2023. Then Pump to 280K by june 2025.

This analysis is based off all prior bitcoin data. This I'd venture to say is the most likely scenario but of course, other external events, a change of the fundamentals, or competition could affect this positively or negatively for BTC price. Hope that makes more sense. (It's more clear if you check it out on trading view so you can actually manipulate the chart and get a better view - link--- https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/LZLdkUG1-The-Cycles-Of-Bitcoin-Get-Ready/

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Yeah ima give it an in depth look on tradingview but I like your estimates and I expect the same. Nows the time to cost avg and accumulate again. Wish I had known market cycles in the beginning but Ive learned from my mistakes. Crypto is basically the first asset class I’ve really invested in. I went from 12x my investment to down 80% on my initial investment. SMH I bought more when I should of sold.

Posted using Partiko iOS

Hey @the.success.club,

Really Adore the work you are doing with the posts for the community over here.

Also Bitcoin's Techtonic shift from the highs of $15000+ to Sub $5000 levels are more of a vested interest in trading such a high currency any way.

Binance showed a sudden drop of almost around 60% in the trader when the BTC rose to $15K - $20K.

Its also a matter of supply and demand! More supply lesser the demand!

I've followed you and would be really happy if you can guide me here.
I've tried to give my 2 cents advice to the community wrt. Bitcoin Technical Analysis => https://d.tube/#!/v/exoticinvestment/grjkgak1

Could you please have a look at the video and give me feedback and how I can improve my work and help the community here?

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Really appreciate the thoughtful comment! I'll check it out and I'll get right back to you!

What happened so that you believe there will be a change in Bitcoin

Please Follow https://steemit.com/@jakshitam

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Check out my comment response to @californiacrypto
Hope that makes more sense. Let me know if you have any questions, or see anything I missed in my analysis.

Is the market going to crash because that's all I'm hearing??

Posted using Partiko Android

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I think we can go down further from here or stay stagnant for another month in half maybe move down a bit, so we hit the lower curves resistance. The lowest I see happening is1800-2400. We may have already seen the low but would not be surprised if we fall and test at least 2800. The way I see it is it's a 30-40% possible downside risk, however, the upside is massive and won't matter too much in the big picture. Dollar cost averaging would likely be a smart strategy. ( buy in as price drops so your average buy price declines so it's faster to make up short term losses. Since 2013 I buy BTC every week, the amount is based on where we are in the market cycle. It has worked great so far. Good Luck keep collecting crypto, Let me know if you have any question

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Great article! It's important for newcomers to know, that Bitcoin runs through these cycles over and over. If you got in at the worst possible time in one cycle, and got out at the worst possible moment in the next cycle, you still would be in profit significantly

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This chart is our road map for the next 10 years. Just love it. Thanks for sharing!
@the.success.club

Thank you for your post @the.success.club.
is this time is suitable time to buy bitcoin for invest?
or falling more bitcoin price?

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Depends on the time frame, if you are looking for a long term investment, it could be a good time to buy now