Quick and dirty business valuation of Magic Dice

작년

The dPoll by @vimukthi prompted me to try a cursory valuation of Magic Dice.

Formula: Value of an Asset = (CF_1)/(1+r) + ... + (CF_n)/((1+r)^n)

  • CF_1: Cash Flow in period 1
  • r: Discount rate
  • n: Number of periods (years)

Assumptions:

  • 7 - 10 million $ in "dividends" p.a.
  • Business is straight forward ~ 2% from the top. People like to gamble
  • Could be inflated by hype (novelty) and airdrop is ongoing. Warrants a 7,5% discount rate for the business
  • Current crypto volatility warrants another 10 to 15% additional discount rate
  • Further discount because tokes are locked up until SMTs are released
  • Because of rapid change in the field, only 3 periods taken into consideration

This yields a combined discount rate of 22,5 to 27,5 % (no SMT scenario)

Min. valueMax. value
Discount Rate [%]27,522,5
Dividend [million $]710
CF_158
CF_247
CF_335
Total1320

These assumptions yield a value for the business Magic Dice under current conditions between 13 and 20 million $.

An update of these assumptions is warranted when the market for crypto has stabilized, SMTs have been released and the airdrop is complete.

@remind-me on July 1st 2019 12:00

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