⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 33) ⚽️

4년 전
in epl

The numbers


The methods used to generate these are:

  • Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
  • Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

HomeAwayHome GEAway GETot GG Supr
BournemouthCrystal Palace1.551.132.680.41
West BromSwansea1.200.862.060.34
Man CityMan United1.700.892.590.81
ChelseaWest Ham2.270.833.101.44


  • My banker of the week is Chelsea with a goal supremacy value of 1.44
  • (!) Despite Liverpool having a goal supremacy value of 0.83 vs Everton, their first team is likely to be rested
  • (!) Man City may also rest players for their CL fixture on Tuesday, but as their squad is so strong, I expect they'll still have enough to win the title at home

Bet of the week

This bet is an unusual one for me, as it's not really a stats-based tip, but instead circumstantial. Everton face Liverpool in the early kick-off tomorrow, but it almost certainly won't be the Liverpool team we're used to seeing, as their huge 2nd-leg Quarter Final against Man City is only on Tuesday. Klopp has been vocal about his annoyance at having to play this game so close to both CL games, and has heavily hinted he will have to rotate the team.

The lineup itself is almost impossible to predict, but I'm going to try anyway!

Clyne - Lovren - Masterson - Moreno

Chamberlain - Henderson - Wijnaldum

      Ings - Solanke - Firmino

EDIT: As Woodburn is apparently injured, I've brought Firmino in for him

With Liverpool resting players, Everton should be able to achieve at least a draw in front of their own fans, and at almost evens to do so this seems a good bet.

Bet: Everton +0.5 (AH) @ 1.98 (188BET)

Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:

Everton +0.5
Huddersfield +0.5
Stoke City +1.5
WBA Under 2
West Ham +1.75

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!

Adam (acelad)

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Bet of the week result: WIN

Everton +0.51.981pt0-0+0.98

I must admit, the LFC team Klopp put out was a bit stronger than I had predicted (I got 6/11 players right), although Liverpool's price still drifted heavily pre-KO after the team news was announced. This finished a draw as expected, which I'd say was a fair result for both teams and both keepers made great saves.

I'm happy to say that after 6 bets, my BotW picks are now (slightly) in profit!

Bet of the week running total:


My model favors Everton today, too:

40.97% Everton vs 30.23% Liverpool, but I'm not that sure. Liverpool is strong, in form side that can do well even with their second team.

Your bet (Everton +0.5) seems the reasonable choice for this game, but since I'm placing micro bets based on my model's picks I have 0.5€ on Everton today :-)

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