Price Forecasting | Homework By @umar7 | Given By Professor @stream4u | S2WEEK2

6개월 전

INTRODUCTION

Hello, Steemians. Since I am new to this community and so willing to get into this cryptocurrency knowledge. Today I am glad to show my first homework that I did(given by @stream4u):

Q#1:What Is Price Forecasting?

Ans: Price forecasting by its terms means the prediction of price now it can be a prediction of anything which has a price tag on it, But if you talk about cryptocurrency in particular then it means the prediction of any coin in the near future(it can be for weeks days years or even decades) considering its past, present, and its reputation in the society whether it will go up or will fall in other words you need to buy it or sell it considering the conditions.

Q#2:Discuss on why Price Forecasting is needed?

Ans: Now talking about the need to forecast the price is very important.
For example, Consider that a news channel forecasts that there will be rain in a few weeks and it will be heavy and will fall cats and dogs for consecutive 3 to 4 days Now in this situation you will go and buy the basic necessities of life(like an umbrella and food).In the same way, forecasting cryptocurrency is very crucial because your economic condition is depending on it and if it is a good idea to invest or trade in the market irrespective of whether the market is bullish or bearish.

In short, Forecasting can help you take advantage of the opportunity in the market by trading or investing considering your analysis of speculation of the market.

Q#3:What Methods are best you feel for Price Prediction/Forecasting?

Ans: Since there are three main analysis methods TECHNICAL, FUNDAMENTAL, and SENTIMENTAL analysis and, the most preferable of them is technical analysis and fundamental because they both give a broader view of any asset. But I am giving you the explanation of all three:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Technical analysis is the ultimate instrument to test the forecasting of an asset. It comprises of factors that need to be considered 1-Bullish engulfing pattern: The bullish engulfing pattern occurs when a market has been in a downtrend(declined) for a long time.2-Bearish engulfing pattern: It's the opposite of the bullish engulfing pattern when the market has been heading high and now is down trending.3-Bullish divergence signal: A bearish divergences occur when prices rise to a new high but the oscillator can only show a high that is lower than displayed on a previous rally. Bearish divergences often signal a sharp and significant reversal toward a downtrend.4-The False breakout: False breakout is when the price temporarily rises or falls to a key support or resistance level, but then after some time withdraws back to the same side as it begins.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

Fundamental analysis does not base upon the market trends and the price of any asset instead the investors and traders just analyze roughly these factors in order to operate in the market 1-Condition of the market in which you are going to trade 2-Their market supply 3-weekly/monthly balance sheets 4-Company Ofiicial Website looks 5-Company win/loss ratio.

SENTIMENTAL ANALYSIS:

The sentimental analysis depends upon sentiments/emotions of the market the traders and investors analyze the condition of the market through social media, news channels and also observes the celebrities whether they are investing in this market or not irrespective of considering the history of that asset.

Q#4:Take any Crypto Asset Chart graph and explain how to do Price Forecasting? OR Take any Crypto Assets Chart graph & as per its current price tell us what will be its future price for next 1 week or 1 month? You can predict for any direction up or down but explain it properly on what basis you have predicted the price.

Ans: I will be using the Binance coin as an asset to predict the price in order to make good trading. The chart pattern I will be using is from coinmarketcap.com
Example 1:
crypto.png

Now, Consider the market pattern from February to March, You can see the asset price was pumped after 8 Feb and keeps on pumping until 19 Feb and has achieved the highest price, and then unfortunately after 19 Feb the price keeps falling, and with that, the support becomes resistance now. Now in this situation, you have two choices either buy or keep waiting until the asset(Binance) at least reaches 23rd Feb rates.
Example2:

crypto2.png
Now let's say I invested in the asset on 19 Feb, Look at the chart pattern it looks like the price hit the lowest on 25th March and then keeps on increasing until 12th April. Now the question arises whether it was a good idea to buy at that time or hold myself until it reaches its original price then invest in it. My answer would be to buy for the long term(no hurry)at that time Because the technical analysis suggesting the asset crossed the support and is likely to go up(By analyzing the past).
Now watch the circle (on the right) suppose you bought the asset and it's 14 April and you are unsure if the market keeps on bearish and you are at the stake of whether to sell or hold more and be patient.
My answer would be to sell as professor @stream4u suggested
Reason 1: Because I hold this for a month if the price gets down back to the Feb 20 level so I will get a chance again to buy.
Reason 2:If I hold and the price goes down again to the 20 Feb level, my holding efforts gone, and don't know if it goes more down from there. To achieve again 12th April level I will have to wait for more months.

Conclusion:

Generally, All three analyzing factors are important for price forecasting, and it reinforces the investors to become more confident, Although nothing is 100% accurate. It is best for an investor to manipulate all these analyzing techniques and think more before investing and find the best gems to invest on.
I appreciate the efforts of the @stream4u professor for teaching us in a polarizing way and taught us both the negative and positive impacts. Thank you
C.C
@Stream4u
@steemcurator01
@steemcurator02
@steemcurator07

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Professor @stream4u kindly review my post.