Technology is creating a completely different world and, thus, altering how people invest. We are seeing time lines radically changed since the pace of advancements is unprecedented.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the world of telecommunications. The pace of change, while it is slow to implement, is mind numbing.
Right now, we see many promoting the idea of investing heavily in 5G. Telecom is investing billions in an effort to upgrade their networks. It is expected that this implementation rate will grow into 2023 as more systems are rolled out.
This is a theory backed up by Goldman Sachs who foresees 200 million 5G phones sold in 2020. If this occurred it is a 20x growth over 2019.
Whether there is potential in 5G or not is outside the scope of this article. I will say there is anticipated competition coming from Internet satellite that is being pushed by the likes of Musk, Bezos, and Branson. How all this turns out remains to be seen.
Remaining in the mobile field (on Earth at least), we see the rollout of 5G taking place when some are making plans to eclipse it totally.
Imagine a technology that is rolled out which is expected to be 10 times faster than what 5G offers? Is that something that would capture people's attention?
This is the view of Japan. It is already planning to start the roll out of 6G networks, starting in 2030. Thus, the present investment in 5G technology will be passe starting a decade from now. Naturally, this is speculation since we do not know if the emergence of 6G will take place in the time period mentioned.
Nevertheless, this is not stopping the Japanese government from starting to push in this direction.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan will set up a government-civilian research society in January under the chairmanship of the University of Tokyo Goshinjin, and under the direct supervision of the General Affairs Minister Takao Sanae, GizmoChaina reported on Monday.
Additionally, people from NTT and Toshiba will also be invited to discuss 6G performance goals and policy support by June. The government will promote the development of 6G technology.
The reason why we see so much money being invested is simply because we are going to need as much bandwidth as possible. With the expected connection of tens of millions of devices, we are going to need "highways" to transfer data. Simply put, the world is going to need faster, cheaper, and a lot more data communications platforms.
To me, this is a valuable lesson for all to learn. We are in a period where the next generation is already being thought about and worked on even before the previous one is out. This goes beyond forced obsolescence since it is actually technological upgrades that we are looking it.
Over the next couple decades, I expect the time frames where this takes place to get shorter. If this takes place, we are already seeing a quicker upgrade then when we went from 4G to 5G.
Fortunately, for investors, it is likely that the same telecommunication entities that are investing in 5G will be big players in 6G.
Either way, it is fun to watch it all unfold.
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