Which one are we going to be?
Disclaimer; I am not an expert on the subject of Covid-19 or Novel Coronavirus. I was investigating some data related to Covid-19 infection and pandemic for my family and I found the following information quite useful for my personal use.
So why are these plots important? They are giving me a clue on how long we might be stuck inside in the US. I understand that the United States is a bigger and more diverse population, so complexity of the cases could be worse compared to Italy. Even more alarming fact; cases can increase very late. I took this clue/hint from Japan.
Japan is a very interesting case in the current pandemic. The country fared very well in the beginning, and we thought that basic careful personal hygiene of Japanese society will be enough to control the spread of Covid-19 there. However, recent data suggests that may not be the case. There is an alarming spike of recent cases in Japan lately.
Which direction we will go in the US?
Obviously, we do not know, and likely there is no simple way to predict. Data suggests, that peak should be reached in about 3-4 weeks from the start of the pandemic (which should be just about now). However, it is not easy to define the start (classic example is Japan). Also it can revive/re-start. Also the width of the plateau can be wide. Spain have peaked, but the number of new cases are still not even half when compared to the highest numbers it has seen. So even after 15 days of reaching peak, the numbers are still alarmingly higher.
The way I am reading this is that we might be stuck at home all the way till summer. The economic impact of that globally could be alarming.
All charts are from this source.