Coronavirus Case Statistics for April 06

8개월 전

Where are we heading in the US

First things first; I am no expert of this subject of Covid-19 or Novel Coronavirus. I was checking some statistics for my family and my team at work and I found the following information quite useful for an educated guess based on the public information we have at hand. This is for my personal use only.



World_cases_Apr_04.JPG

Source

Today April 06, 2020; I woke up to this statistics above. I live in the US, so the next thing I wanted to check is the US statistics.

USA_cases_Apr_04.JPG

Source

All very alarming figures, but for planning purposes regarding when we might be able to get back to the office, and out and about I was trying to look at the daily cases at US and perhaps compared that to a country where the cases started much earlier and the data I can trust.

Again April 06, the total case numbers in the United States show stready climb. Again the last data point does show a glimmer of hope.
Today is April 06, and this is the first day the new case numbers are lower than the previous day. I understand, that One day does not make a trend.


We have incomplete information at this point from the US, and no real projection can be made. However, I thought I can perhaps draw some ideas from a country where the pandemic started earlier and have clearly demonstrated the peak. China data is perhaps unreliable, so I looked into South Korea, where the event started early and the data is perhaps quite reliable.

Around Feb 15 is the start of the Pandemic in South Korea, the inflection point is around March 3-4, and steady cumulative rise after that.
Same trend in the Daily New Cases in South Korea, with a clear peak on March 03 and a gradual decline after that.


Looking at the mature case in South Korea, which could be the best case scenario, we are perhaps looking at 3 week time for peak activity. If we take March 15 as the start of pandemic in US, we are perhaps looking at April 3-4 as a peak. My understanding is that this is not a perfectly predictable case and countries are different. However, this gives me some basic idea.

What is alarming to me, is the long tail that we see in the South Korea case. Yes, they have peaked and flattened the curve, but there is still new cases. A country with a higher population and more co-mingling of people will perhaps have a broader plateau and an elevated tail of the distribution.

All data and charts are from the same Source.

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Ive been keeping track of the USA numbers since March 11th, here they are feel free to use them in your posts.

3/11 5:30pm Infected - 1,109 Dead - 31
3/12 5:30pm Infected - 1,573 Dead - 40
3/13 5:30pm Infected - 2,269 Dead - 48
3/14 5:30pm Infected - 2,836 Dead - 57
3/15 5:30pm Infected - 3,557 Dead - 68
3/16 5:30pm Infected - 4,411 Dead - 77
3/17 5:30pm Infected - 6,176 Dead - 102
3/18 5:30pm Infected - 8,993 Dead - 150
3/19 5:30pm Infected - 13,671 Dead - 191
3/20 5:30pm Infected - 18,756 Dead - 253
3/21 5:30pm Infected - 24,786 Dead - 290
3/22 5:30pm Infected - 32,356 Dead - 414
3/23 5:30pm Infected - 42,751 Dead - 520
3/24 5:30pm Infected - 52,983 Dead - 680
3/25 5:30pm Infected - 64,769 Dead - 910
3/26 5:30pm Infected - 82,067 Dead - 1,177
3/27 5:30pm Infected - 100,392 Dead - 1,543
3/28 5:30pm Infected - 120,168 Dead - 1,993
3/29 5:30pm Infected - 140,256 Dead - 2,457
3/30 5:30pm Infected - 160,385 Dead - 2,953
3/31 5:30pm Infected - 184,487 Dead - 3,756
4/1 5:30 pm Infected - 211,408 Dead - 4,718
4/2 5:30 pm Infected - 240,511 Dead - 5,810
4/3 5:30 pm Infected - 272,998 Dead - 7,005
4/4 5:30 pm Infected - 306,507 Dead - 8,344
4/5 5:30 pm Infected - 333,017 Dead - 9,528

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In Italy today 18.:00 pm 07/04/2020 - 94.067 infected and 17,107 dead.

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Thanks! If we take March 11 as a start, then our peak is overdue right now, therefore, our case may be looking at a much broader plateau.

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Just FYI, internal memos at the hospital I work at is anticipating the worst in the next 2-3 weeks.

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Great! Then we are stuck home for 2 more months!

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Just watched a david icke interview, apparently its a hoax

when will the corona virus stop spreading? in my opinion this is a world disaster. there have been many victims. please stop all this!

I imagine we are going to be dealing with this for a long time.

The first case here in Washington state was confirmed back on January 21st, and we've been under "stay home" orders for several weeks... it's perhaps working slowly; Washington was — at one point — the state with the most cases in the US... even so, it'll probably be April 15th before the curve "flattens" much here.

Judging by the Stock Market I would say the Pandemic is over.... shortest bear market depression collapse and recovery ever. Buy buy buy

I write from northern Italy, near Milan. In Italy the situation begins to improve fortunately. We will get out of it.
The only weapon is staying at home, shopping once a week or even every two. Initially in Italy it was difficult to keep citizens at home, it took weeks but we are doing it. Don't make our own mistakes.
#stay home
Courage!!!

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3rd week for us. Yes staying home.

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For us 4 weeks. Maybe 2 more weeks of total closure