It is hard not to get bullish on cryptocurrencies lately. Just yesterday, HIVE pumped from $0.12 to as high as $0.22 on news of HIVE going live on Huobi.
It has been a while since I see a pump of such magnitude coming from an "official" listing news. I mean Huobi had all along indicated their support for the Hive fork, so I am actually very surprise that this piece of news can pump HIVE by so much. Perhaps this shows signs of bullish sentiments in the air for cryptos in general?
In any case, today I am going to take a look at BTC and ETH again to understand where the price could be heading.
A look at ETH
In my previous post about ETH price, I said this,
I am expecting ETH to fail the test and fall back to the 21d SMA, around the $152-$155 level
And it sure did not age well 😅. Right after I made that post, ETH price immediately sliced through the 200d SMA like a hot knife through butter. It then took a dip but managed to make the 200d SMA its support. It is now testing its recent high of $190 as this post is being written.
The $194 level will be an interesting level to take note of as it is the recent high and also the 50w SMA.
However, my eyes are set for ETH to reach $300 in this pump. Why $300? If you have been following my series of posts on ETH price, in my first post, I drew comparison between this possible pump and the most recent pump. In that recent pump, ETH broke through a long term trend line, a near term triangle and the 21d SMA. After which, there was a 110% rally from the price where the break out occurred.
As you can see from the chart, the previous pump took 41 days from the point of breakout to the peak. If we see a similar pump, that should bring ETH to $300. The time frame also coincides with the upcoming Bitcoin rewards halving event which I will talk about in the next section.
I also want to point out something quite interesting. If we were to look at the past 2 fib retracements, we see that the price tends to move up then retrace to the 50% fib level. However, on its next rally, it tends to go to the 1.272 fib extension level before it retrace. You can refer to the chart below.
Hence, with that in mind, my next target for ETH is the $201 price level. However, ETH is also at a cross-road. If the $190 level gets rejected and there is a sell down, it might form a double top reversal pattern. From there I will have to re-assess the situation. If that scenario does occur, I will like to see ETH holding to the 200d SMA level ($172) as a support.
A look at BTC
BTC is also at a very interesting situation. On the weekly chart, we can see that it has done a 50% retracement since the recent sell-off and it tried to test the 21w SMA once.
When we switch to the daily chart, things get even more interesting. From the chart below, you will see that I drew a downward sloping green trendline (slightly longer term) and red upward sloping trendline (nearer term).
As you can see, BTC went below the red trendline since 14 Apr, which is a bearish sign. It then hugged the green trendline and turned it into support. Now it is testing the red trendline again and attempting to break above.
It will be quite bullish in my opinion if BTC is able to break above the red trendline today or tomorrow and turns it into support to return to the uptrend. If that happens, I will look forward to BTC hitting the $8k level. Not only it is a psychological level, it is also the 200d SMA.
On the more fundamental side of things, by now you should know that the Bitcoin rewards halving is just round the corner. In fact it is less than 18 days away.
Things are starting to heat up in terms of interest on Bitcoin. If we take a look at Google Trends, we are seeing more searches for "bitcoin halving" than in the previous halving.
We also see articles on the increasing amount of bitcoins being hodl in wallets. We also see more institutional investors dipping their toes into bitcoin and ethereum. Finally, we also start to see mainstream media like Bloomberg giving a bullish case for Bitcoin.
I encourage you to read the Bloomberg report as it is interesting on how they see Bitcoin gradually shifting to become more like gold. As the equities markets get increasingly volatile, Bitcoin is actually getting decreasingly volatile. In one of my earlier posts, I also mentioned how Bitcoin is now more correlated to gold than equities.
The next few days will be really interesting for the cryptocurrencies market. We see that the traditional financial market has more or less stabilized (relative to last month) and perhaps this is the time we start to see cryptocurrencies shine.
From a technical analysis viewpoint, there are a few key resistances that BTC and ETH need to break in order to see a higher pump in price. However, from the fundamental viewpoint, the narratives are getting very bullish.
All in all, I am getting very optimistic. It is really hard not to get bullish on cryptocurrencies lately. Again, I am just sharing my thought process and please do not take it as financial advice. Due diligence and research is still required for your own investment.