The virus. A look at the available data & my thoughts. Are you prepared? #COVID2019

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The last few days have clearly shown that in those countries that are willing to sacrifice economics for the health of their people and in the end human life's, are doing significantly better in slowing down the spread of the V.

Those interested in being prepared for possible draconian measures to come probably have already stacked up on the most essential things.

I'm sitting in the hearth of Europe atm, Germany to be exact, and around Germany and in Germany the measures are slowly being ramped up because now it seems to be clear that without those the health care systems will be overwhelmed.

Italy has just closed down huge regions of their country (northern Italy) but atm they're still letting people "get out" and possibly carrying/spreading COVID19.

It's not so easy in the western democracies to ramp sufficient measures up quickly.

All what is going on right now could've been significantly slowed down if measure would've been taken in early/mid January.

It's all about slowing this thing down imho!

Once the regarding national health care systems are overwhelmed the death tolls will rise dramatically. Treatable/survivable infections will then have turned into fatalities. I assume that in certain area's on the globe triage protocols apply already.

Clearly the highest risk groups are around the elderly and chronic ill people (100+-64 yrs. age) but the fatalities in the age bracket down to 59-44 yrs. are still at an "moderate" risk level.

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For me, from an analytical standpoint, in many regions (or almost all areas!) the data is still inconclusive especially regarding the fatality rates and total numbers of fully recovered people.

But it seems to be clear, the earlier and more thorough counter measures are implemented the greater the slowdown of the spread or even reasonable containment is achievable.

We are far beyond this point imo.

What is at play in the infection chains seems to be this...


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  • Case + (single case "imported" from China, Italy and so on...)
    case (officials saying: "no need to panic, you don't need masks... and so on)
  • case (#DontTestDontTell at play...)
  • cluster (5, 10, 50, 100 infected... infection chains not reviewable anymore)
  • cluster (further spreading)

+ BOOM! (exponential growth in infected numbers, therefore growth in fatalities)


In Germany for instance they slowly ramped up in closing down mass events/conferences/sports/concerts and so on. Up to today the still keep the national soccer league games going for instance!

At the same time, the German healthcare minister Jens Spahn tries to ease people into the need to ramp up measures slowly. He had before tried to steer clear of certain supply chain issues by telling the people "You don't need breathing masks unless you work in health care". The ongoing balancing act between economic interests and saving human life's clearly show a huge disregard for human life's imo. This is no German phenomenon but can be seen around the globe with just a few exceptions.

We must understand that neither the transmission ways, the number of possibly different virus strains with varying contagion risks, nor other factors like lethality or long term health issues for the "recovered" like permanent lung tissue damage are clear the moment not to mention that a reasonable time frame for a medication against this threat to be developed and come to market is probably at least 12-18 months or longer.

Imho we could soon see more and more supply chains crumble with widespread consequences to the world economy.

The more the situation drifts towards uncontrollable we also must take into account the possibility for social unrest and worse.

Personal protection beyond protective measures against the virus will possibly become equally important the longer this crisis lasts.

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This is the same almost everywhere besides China. China did an outstanding job with their draconian measures/close downs/quarantines and so on.

Please do not take my estimations and opinions as your "truth". Just dyor like we all should be used to being in crypto, right?

Here some interesting information sources and further analytics.

A to me very interesting thread by Liz Specht showed up yesterday on Twitter.

For those who aren't on twitter I share the threadreaderapp.com link to this thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

I just paste a part of the closing note to this thread on here but I recommend checking the complete thread!


"These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n

And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n

Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n"

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I looked into this thread after watching this YT video:

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https://twitter.com/LizSpecht

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https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory (Ben Hunt)

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https://twitter.com/trvrb

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https://twitter.com/chrismartenson

his YT channel...

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w


What I have done/will do... (I'm not claiming this to be sufficient in any form!)

Limit exposure as good as possible

I try to stay away from mass events (no problem for me I don't attend these anyways). I also try to pick locations/shops and so on where I can make sure a certain free space around me. At the moment I'm not wearing protective gear (masks and so on) but I'm ready to use them if things get worse, and yes I've bought different breathing masks with the right filtration levels (P3/FFP3).

Source/stack basic goods/protective gear

  • Water (in case of issues/breakdown of drinking water supplies)
    Food (canned food, dry goods and so on)
  • Medication (very important! Especially because of possible supply chain issues because most meds/ingredients aren't produced/sourced locally... but - you probably already guessed it - in China for instance. How long will it take that Nations close down exports of meds for instance to ensure supplies for the own population for instance?)
  • Gas (Gasoline and propane for heating/cooking if issues with the power grid come up).
  • Power generator (minimum 1.2 kVa for heating, fridges, communication, TV/Radio). I'm thinking about buying a bigger generator up to 10 kVa also)
  • Keep up to date with new developments

I try to have my stacks cover us (Wife, Dogs, me) for at least 4 weeks without needing to resupply in case there are local or even bigger lock downs/quarantines like we see in China, Italy, Iran...

Try to inform other's...

This is most important to me, at least for my friends and family because most are not used to do basic analytics/research. Being prepared is key! Not telling them what I think about this would make me possibly in part responsible for their harming thus it's so easy to tell them my thoughts around this.

I can easily live with being called an alarmist or fear monger or laughed at when things evolve in a more positive way.

Stay frosty out there and most important stay healthy!

I'm not advocating slipping into full panic mode but I highly recommend that everybody should look at the data available and come to your own conclusions!

I do not trust the mainstream media in this because they've shown again and again that they fulfill the "official" agenda of mass control which - as sad as it is - seems to be important especially because in most countries the chances to slow things down or maybe even contain #COVID2019 were wasted.

Wasted because of flawed risk management & analytics in the flat out gamble that things "won't be so dramatic" to "keep the economy" going.

Again... I'm fine with being ridiculed or laughed at so come € me ;.)

Shoot me an comment what you think about this and how you've prepared for things getting worse if you like!

Cheers!
Lucky

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I try to stay away from mass events, that is important most people like me are not a fan of having fun outdoor i love my event indoor.

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I hope you will understand that I need to mute this post within our hive @henry-9ja

It seem that you've tried to post a comment and it ended up within our hive.

Yours,
Piotr

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Dear @project.hope, Piotr,

aren't people outside the hive allowed to comment on posts made inside the hive?

Cheers!
Lucky

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Dear @doifeellucky

Of course can. I'm not sure how @henry-9ja did it, but his comment is being displayed within our hive as a post. Check it out:

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It's very first time I'm seeing something like this so I muted it. Right now I removed that mute. Strange things.

Yours, Piotr

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Hey Piotr!

Wow! Now I get the whole thing! Thank you very much for clearing this up for me! I was thinking why doesn’t he let the guy comment in here! Brahaha! Great! See, that made me laugh a little about myself! Love eeeet!

Cheers!
Lucky

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Good strategy as far as I can tell for the moment!

My country does not seem to be doing anything feasible to control the situation just yet, but I can only hope that it does not find it's way into our beloved country, if this happens, only the poor/masses will suffer for it and there will be lot's of death cases.

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Hi @doifeellucky

It is definitely going to be an interesting time and I think everyone has had their lives impacted in some way already. Shortages in the supermarkets etc. are already prevalent. The best we can do is not-panic but take the necessary precautions. We can really limit our chance of catching the virus by following some good hygiene practices but there is always a risk.

One positive I suppose, is that as a society we can learn so much from this particular virus that will help us to better prepare for future viruses. As we have seen with previous Sars, swine flu, bird flu, zika and others, this is a repeating occurrence and we could face even worse in the future. So let's learn from this experience and ensure our governments protect us better next time too.

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To me the number one priority is limiting possible exposure for now and being prepared with reasonable efforts. These efforts may individually vary of course and I'm by far not saying that I'm an expert in regards to disease control, but I'm experienced in data analysis. The data I see at the moment, even if inconclusive in many ways, is disturbing to say the least!

My assumptions:

  1. We have to assume that the actual case numbers are much higher including the CFR (case fatality rate). There could be a lot of cases that simply are added into the "yearly flu fatalities" rather than into COVID19 cases for instance.

  2. The data seems to clearly show - now already - that the low case number regions correlate with countries/regions in which proper measures were implemented. Quarantines/Lockdowns/Travel restrictions and so on.

  3. Why take risks if you don't have to? This is a question everybody must answer for themselves. This foremost applies to business/cultural/sports events and so on.

  4. Information exchange with others can be essential! I don't trust mainstream news outlets or officials. You cannot trust them obviously. They're trying to balance economics with human life's and healthcare resources. They're basically gambling with out life's! Just check up in your country or region how the escalation in wording progresses especially in the last 10 days.

  5. Supply chain impacts around health care. Be aware that most pharmaceutical supplies aren't produced locally! You have one guess were many of the ingredients or ready to use medications come from. You guessed right... China! How long do you think it has taken until the Chinese officials actually have begun to triage the available healthcare support locally and when they are regulating what will leave the country or what they'll keep for their own population. I'm not talking any helpful medication around the symptoms of the flu or COVID19 I'm talking a lot of stuff that keeps large numbers of people alive every day. Blood pressure meds, coronary meds, diabetes and so on.

Like I wrote before, if I'm wrong I'm surely running the risk of being ridiculed and laughed at. I can easily life with that. If I'm right, maybe some who read this have a chance to rethink their personal risk appetite.

Cheers!
Lucky

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I hope no one ridicules you for raising concerns as we all need to be super cautious and sensible. However, we also need to be rational and considerate for others. There are a number of Covid-19 patients in my local hospital but I hear on the news people are stealing face masks and hand sanitizer from the hospital. Some people just do stupid selfish things when they feel scared. So let's educate people but also stay calm.

As you say above, the number one priorty has to be limiting exposure.

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❤️👍

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It will indeed be interesting and challenging time @awah

COVID-19 seems to have more of adult mortality in countries where it is high incidence. It is very surprising that Africa have been able to manage the cases of coronavirus properly.

I have been trying to stuck up for days of emergency quarantine but currently in Africa, it seems not to be a matter of concern.

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It's mostly a question of the total number of cases. As long as the infection rates progress slowly the health care systems can keep up with the people in serious condition. Let's not forget that for most the symptoms seem to be mild up to aren't even detectable. The CFR (case fatality rate) is most important in this regard. Here the available data isn't conclusive so far. Leading virologists estimate that probably over the course of the next years 2/3 of the total world population will have been infected at some point. The good news is, this is also the ratio they assume that is needed to reach "herd immunization". The bad news is that some of the people in high risk groups (60-100+ yrs. of age) and people with lowered resistance because of chronic illnesses for instance will have serious conditions or will even pass after they've been infected. That's what the available data at the moment also supports.

I live in Germany too, 40 km away from Heinsberg, where the first case occured.
In the schoolclass of my daughter one person is infected. On person in my work location is positv tested too. So I am very excited, how we go on.
I feel a bit underinformed, because we lack of official anouncements.
And I still don't how how dangerous this virous is and how the people suffer from it at the end.

Achim Mertens

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Hello Achim,

I'm sorry that I probably cannot ease your concerns and I think it's important that we all stay on our toes to try the best in regards to protecting our loved ones, our friends and ourselves.

Like I said before, to me the most important thing at the moment seems to be to limit the possible exposure to COVID19 as best as we can.

Also it absolutely makes sense to be prepared for possible quarantine measures locally and even in wider regions like we've seen today in northern Italy for instance.

I can again absolutely recommend the information sources that I've named so far in the article. Maybe try to do some own research on more reliable information sources.

If you're waiting for some German officials to tell you what to do... you might wait a long time or too long because it seems to me they are still trying to "balance" economics against human life's. Just my 2 sats on this.

Cheers!
Lucky

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Https://rki.de is a good help with #covid19.
Btw. I was asked to work in home office for the next two weeks, which I will do.

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Vielen Dank! Hatt ich schon auf der "Uhr" mit dem RKI! ;-) ...und gut so mit dem Home Office!

Teu teu teu!

Cheers!
Lucky

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I was also wondering - how come Germany has so many cases but hardly any deaths. Is your medical care on such a top level?

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I don't think that it is the medical care. I think we have a system that finds nearly every person that is infected. So we have more honest statistics.
In other countries they only count cases with heavy impacts.

Dear @doifeellucky

I finally had a chance to read your post without being interrupted. Very challenging and scary times ahead of us buddy.

Unfortunatelly it seem to me that EU is focusing mostly on saving economy. US probably will be hit even worse - since uninsured people (apparently) are not going to be tested.

I was also wondering - how come Germany has so many cases but hardly any deaths. Is your medical care on such a top level?

Now what we will see is pattern:

  • case
  • case
  • case
  • cluster
  • cluster
  • BOOM!

Just like you said.

Upvoted already,
Yours, Piotr

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Hello Piotr,

due too issues with the test kits in the USA, they decided on using a more complex test kit that would cover testing addittonal diseases (https://www.todayonline.com/world/us-health-authority-shipped-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-across-country), which explains the low numbers up to date. They're just now receiving functioning simpler test kits nation wide which will probably make the case numbers ramp up quickly!

So in all the turmoil additional issues one would assume that especially in this field KISS (keep it simple stupid) would apply... however...

In Germany the case numbers just started ramping up. The COVID19 incubation phase is approx. 2 weeks so, we'll have to wait for more conclusive data out of Germany.

The EU as a whole has failed in this at least to the extend of little by little adjusting the recommendations of handling the situation and they are in "good" company because imho the WHO alike did an less than exceptional job to say the least.

The experiments, they weren't more than that imo, trying to balance economics with human grievance and life have failed and I'm pretty sure the damages that they were trying to minimize will be even more hefty once the national health care systems breakdown due to being overwhelmed because instead of slowing the spread of COVID19 down we'll see a lot of "BOOM's" I'm afraid.

The really simple math behind the increasingly fast spreading of COVID19 is a simple exponential function. On average every 4 days the "outside of China" cases double. Compounding up to the well known "hockey stick" graphs we all know from crypto back in the "good old days" (2015-2017).

Cheers!
Lucky

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Thank you for this amazing comment @doifeellucky

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Tyvm Piotr!

Cheers!
Lucky

Resteemed already. Upvote on the way :)

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🙏

Scary times ahead of us :/

@tipu curate

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Yes, sadly true! I guess we have to stay on our toes regarding new developments and more data being gathered around this pandemic. Interesting to me how broad the spectrum of risk assessments is at the moment. The data seems to clearly indicate that the more consequent counter measures are implemented/enforced the more the case number growth slows. Logical, right? But in most countries they still try to balance economics and health risks which leads to a slower than needed escalation in measures. Italy seems to be a great example and I'm pretty sure we'll see fast rising numbers especially in the US were the officials don't seem to have even the slightest grip on this.

To early to say, but based on the expertise of some of the virology experts that get a little more awareness now than a few weeks ago, we have to strap in for COVID19 for the new few years. Until 2/3 of the population aren't/weren't infected the "herd immunization" factor isn't reached.