50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions

2개월 전


I had some backlash in my recent posts where I touched on climate change. I'd like to clarify some things about it, but before I do, here's a list of failed doomsday ecological predictions. It's sourced from https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions, check out that webpage for screenshots and proof related to each item.

  • 1967: ‘Dire famine by 1975.’
  • 1969: ‘Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam by 1989.’
  • 1970: Ice age by 2000
  • 1970: ‘America subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980.’
  • 1971: ‘New Ice Age Coming’
  • 1972: New ice age by 2070
  • 1974: ‘New Ice Age Coming Fast’
  • 1974: ‘Another Ice Age?’
  • 1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life’
  • 1976: ‘The Cooling’
  • 1980: ‘Acid Rain Kills Life in Lakes’ (But 10 years later, the US government program formed to study acid rain concluded: "Acid rain no environmental crisis")
  • 1978: ‘No End in Sight’ to 30-Year Cooling Trend (But according to NASA satellite data there is a slight warming trend since 1979)
  • 1988: James Hansen forecasts increase regional drought in 1990s (But the last really dry year in the Midwest was 1988, and recent years have been record wet.)
  • 1988: Washington DC days over 90F to from 35 to 85 (But the number of hot days in the DC area peaked in 1911, and have been declining ever since.)
  • 1988: Maldives completely under water in 30 years
  • 1989: Rising seas to ‘obliterate’ nations by 2000
  • 1989: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019
  • 1995 to Present: Climate Model Failure
  • 2000: ‘Children won’t know what snow is.’
  • 2002: Famine in 10 years
  • 2004: Britain to have Siberian climate by 2020
  • 2008: Arctic will be ice-free by 2018
  • 2008: Al Gore warns of ice-free Arctic by 2013 (this one was a gem, try again Al Gore, the polar ice cap is still here in 2019)
  • 2009: Prince Charles says only 8 years to save the planet
  • 2009: UK prime minister says 50 days to ‘save the planet from catastrophe’
  • 2013: Arctic ice-free by 2015
  • 2013: Arctic ice-free by 2016 (Al Gore's prophecy didn't come true in 2013, so they kept pushing the date, naturally)
  • 2014: Only 500 days before ‘climate chaos’

Other doomsday predictions unrelated to climate change

  • The Y2K bug will cause havoc on our computers, launch nuclear missiles and shutdown medical devices and kill people.
  • The world will end in 21 December 2012 because the Mayan predicted the pole would begin shifting and annihilate us.

Fast forward to 2019

  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the genius behind the Green New Deal: ‘The World Is Going to End in 12 Years if We Don’t Address Climate Change’
  • Presidential Democrat candidates for 2020 are blindly backing that assertion so they don't look bad in the election. Ocasio-Cortez is a world expert on climate change, she acquired her expertise during her career as a barmaid (sarcasm of course)!

What now?

So, to anyone with a sound mind, after realizing all the climate change predictions turned out to be completely wrong and plagued with inaccuracies, what conclusion would you draw? Scientists and governments predicted ice ages for decades (until global warming screwed them up), famines, droughts, floods, disappearance of snow. Yet, none of that happened. Do you still believe what the "experts" tell you? The narrative went from global cooling, then global warming, to the more inclusive notion of "climate change". What does that even mean? Climate changes all the time, on short, medium and long scales. This way, whatever happens in the future, they can still blame it on climate change to scare people into submission.

Floods, droughts, famines, hotter years AND cooler years do happen within every decade, all the time. Do we need to be nihilistic about it?

Want floods? They happen yearly in the USA with hurricanes. And speaking of hurricanes, have you noticed that EVERY YEAR, they tell you it's the WORSE hurricane ever? Rince and repeat, keep the population freaked out. All hurricanes are bad and cause damage, if you see one coming, evacuate, and after the damage is done, people return and rebuild, right? The planet is not a rosy place, there are dangerous areas where people still choose to live in (it's part of the human insanity). If you know it's a hurricane area (USA), or a volcanic area (Iceland), or a seismic area (Japan)... isn't it time to move to somewhere safer? Sometimes human logic escapes me.

You want to bitch about ongoing man-made disasters?

  • Try the famine in Yemen, brought to you by the Saudi aggression.


    (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/heartbreaking-photos-children-brink-starvation-war-torn-yemen-1584973)

  • Try two Iraqi wars, brought to you by the USA and friends

  • Try Syria, brought to you by the Saudi/USA-trained ISIL

  • Try 70 years of Palestine occupation, brought to you by Israel

  • Try the plastic garbage dumped into the oceans, brought to you by... YOU.
    From choking seals...


    ...to killing marine life.

    What a beautiful sight!

Watch David Attenborough's "Blue Planet 2" where he exposes the shocking disaster of plastic pollution.

In the last 100 years alone, we killed each other with wars, world wars and genocides, more than climate change would dream of!

Conclusion

Climate drove evolution, it created species and destroyed others, before even man walked the earth. Who are we to dictate what nature should do? Who are we to control nature's awesome force? Nature doesn't give a shit when you yell at the clouds, when it's time to rain, it will rain. Humans are extremely resourceful and adapt to any extreme situation: Eskimos survived in the Arctic for millennia, Bedouins conquered the deserts for centuries. We tamed the wolf, domesticated cattle, transformed water flow to create electricity, harnessed the atom to create energy (and destroy two cities), conquered land to spread agriculture. We are NOT on the brink of extinction in 12 years like they want you to believe, our whole existence shows that we can survive any cataclysm, strength in number, unless some big ass meteorite falls on our heads and wipe us all.

I'm not denying climate change, or whether humanity may be one of its causes. I'm all for the ecology, I greatly appreciate wildlife, camping, I recycle, I advocate for a clean environment. The scope of this post is to look at the bigger picture, question the alarmists who keep spewing lies onto everyone, in the name of science, and expecting everyone to blindly follow whatever their agenda is. At its core, science is all about skepticism and the quest for the truth. Sadly, I've been part of the scientific community and I can assure you it's far from being objective and truthful. Results can be falsified or purposely omitted, reviewers can be biased, research groups are like hyenas fighting for scraps of funding, lobbies have an influence on what studies are shown to the public, the list goes on. What I'm saying is, science can be wrong, biased or politicized, be vigilant and do your own research, be inquisitive, reject the repeating lies and seek more knowledge before you form an opinion. And when you do, be open, if you think someone else has a different view, initiate a dialogue and educate each other.


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The problem is that people can feel that something is coming.

But it doesn't help that the MSmockingbirdM sells hysteria.
Nor does it help that there are some very bad people trying to get rich off of the people's care for their planet.

Like the R-12 ozone thing... what was wrong with R-12?
Its patent was running out.

However, the people working with "grand solar minimum" have accurately predicted the temperature every year for a decade now.
We are entering an ice age.

We are also seeing the end of Big-Ag as oil based fertilizers are leaving the ground almost barren.

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The sun is undoubtedly the biggest factor affecting climate. Yet nobody talks about the sun spots or its cycles because they know it'll mess up their narrative.

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Milutin Milanković
Milutin Milanković (Serbian Cyrillic: Милутин Миланковић [milǔtin milǎːnkɔʋitɕ]; 28 May 1879 – 12 December 1958) was a Serbian mathematician, astronomer, climatologist, geophysicist, civil engineer and popularizer of science.
Milanković gave two fundamental contributions to global science. The first contribution is the "Canon of the Earth’s Insolation", which characterizes the climates of all the planets of the Solar system. The second contribution is the explanation of Earth's long-term climate changes caused by changes in the position of the Earth in comparison to the Sun, now known as Milankovitch cycles.

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I agree with Milankovic except that he assumes the sun is static. The sun is far from static. The sun goes through cycles like it is breathing. We are entering a long solar minimum, like the end of an exhale. The next solar maximum will be in 2024. Sunspot activity is increasing. The Schumann Resonance is doubling and tripling intermittently with increasing frequency.
I am 50 years old. When I was young the sun was yellow, now it is white and I burn faster.
I included some links for further review.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/author/mshatfie/
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schumann_resonances
http://www.metatech.org/wp/spiritual-warfare/schumann-resonance/

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Schumann resonances
The Schumann resonances (SR) are a set of spectrum peaks in the extremely low frequency (ELF) portion of the Earth's electromagnetic field spectrum. Schumann resonances are global electromagnetic resonances, generated and excited by lightning discharges in the cavity formed by the Earth's surface and the ionosphere.

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Drakos the problem is you conflate headlines and single predictions, as opposed to hard science.
We have had many-many indicators and there has been extreme proof of what is going on.

And then you show red herrings of atrocities which are important that we need to handle as well.

But, as it turns out had we been handling climate change the atroities you listed would not be as extreme and in some cases not exist at all.

Food security is less possible because of the disappearance of arrid land (either from lack of water or flooding),

Dependence and support of Aggressive Regimes occurs because they have fossil fuels.

Pollution of the environment with waste products in many events happens because a lack of alternatives.

The problem is in large complex systems you can either spend much more time and energy , to handle all the problems if you do not deal with exacerbating causes.

I am not going to go into a long issue by issue debate. But even small change against status quo, takes extreme actions and vocaling by minorities.

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Here is my take on the subject. If Climate Change is real then why the hell are the Politicians, Scientists and actors using more Fossil Fuels than anyone.... flying all over the earth telling people they need to reduce their Carbon Emissions. Friggin Hypocrites.

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First thing, it is the rare politician that actually cares.

So, if the climate change castrophists were actually correct, and the world ends in fire in 10 years, those politicians wouldn't do anything inconvenient.

But they will do things that make them look good in all the other rich people's eyes. Have to have the expensive car, and arrive on the private jet. If you fall on hard times and can only afford a Cadillac, you are just forgotten by that crowd.

Second thing, a single volcano produces more CO2 than all of humanity.
Further, CO2 doesn't affect temperature. (Al Gore proved this)
And the plants could really use some more CO2 in the atmosphere.

So, instantly we can see that those politicians just want something to tax.
The more they tax, the more money they get.


I wouldn't call those congress-critters hypocrites, they are pure evil.
(if only they were just hypocrites)

What a pleasure to read a critical article; almost feels like heresy today, because it's not allowed to discuss it.
Imagine another scenario: The catastrophic climate change is true, but it's not because of greenhouse emissions. Nobody seems to be looking at that.

You should rewind your timeline further back. Thomas Malthus was whinging about how overpopulation was gonna mess everything up, especially global food supply, in the 1700s.
Overpopulation is off the environmentalists' agenda for um political reasons.

We also have Victoria aged authors complaining about pollution.

Then there are all the Mayan amd Biblical predictions which may have been local, but many of those civilizations collapsed partly because of environmental factors.

I despise single use plastics and conserve way more energy than my neighbors (they put the average up and I think they lower it to encourage conservation). However, I can't really get on the whole carbon trading scheme because it is just monetizing the whole thing.

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The timeline goes back through centuries and millenia. I focused on the recent past, so people realize the contemporary disinformation being pushed into the masses, and hopefully wake up.

You mention several good points here, I also want to mention some points from my experience working in sustainable development in Latin America.

The areas we live in are experiencing increasing temperatures, and especially here in the tropics we can attribute much of this to decreasing shade (tree cover) and the urban heat island effect (concrete effect).

We advocate agroforestry systems and other design solutions to many local problems associated with development. People here are working hard to 'develop', they are not thinking the world is going to end, and if it does start to end let me tell you that these hardy people will find a way to make markets and keep living.

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Good point. Big cities are a big source of heat. Suburb temperatures are temperate on average, but when you go downtown on the same day or night, summer or winter, you can feel a drastic change with a higher temperature.

Urban development destroys habitat and exerts great pressure on wild life. But on the other hand there are vast areas on this planet that are not urbanized where wild life still thrives. So naturally, ecologists will put the focus on the disturbed areas as if the whole planet is suffering the same outcome, which is far from the truth. Bringing awareness about the negative human impact on ecosystems (pollution, habitat destruction, garbage dumping) is a noble endeavour, I fully support that, but blaming everything on climate change and using it as a political tool is where I draw the line. Politicians will say and endorse anything to help their campaigns, yet they are among the biggest polluters (private jets, big houses, lobbies, industrial contracts). I'm yet to see any of those hypocrites take the bus or bicycle to go to work.

A recent example of political hypocrisy is Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau, he got busted with blackface on numerous counts in his past, so what does he do? He blames his fuck up on his "privilege" and blames the rest of Canada for being "a racist country"! The art of deflection at its best. And that same prime minister smiled to the cameras with Greta on his side a couple days ago, to make him look good. If he doesn't, he will get canceled. But even with the blackface fiasco, he's still around. These people get away with anything, they lecture us about how we should behave, yet they do the opposite and hide/lie about it. (Exit tangeant).

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Here is my take on the subject. If Climate Change is real then why the hell are the Politicians, Scientists and actors using more Fossil Fuels than anyone.... flying all over the earth telling people they need to reduce their Carbon Emissions. Friggin Hypocrites.

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Do as they say, not as they do. Here's a pure example of their hypocrisy where Extinction Rebellion co-Leader Skeena Rathor repeatedly dodges and refuses to answer a simple question: do you have a TV and electronic devices at home. Also, according to her, the climate change crap should be a collective effort, yet paradoxically, SHE shouldn't be counted as part of the effort!?

From 1970

Today :D

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The armadillo is playing ping pong.

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Yes, those bastards are walking for no reason. Because they are walking, they need to eat. And when they eat, they fart and exhaling CO2. And CO2 is ruining everything. Shoot those bastards before they destroy the planet

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I am not sure that armadillo's fart CO2 (carbon dioxide), I may be wrong, but like most critters they fart hydrogen sulfide (CH4). That is a little different from CO2.

CO2 is good and essential for plants to live. CH4? It stinks (hell it is a fart), and is pretty flammable.

Am I a chemist? No, just used to light my farts when I was in the Corps for laughs. I also fart CH4 more so now that I am up in age. Lots of fiber in my diet.

...be very careful writing with commonsense and logic in these parts...lol

Interesting post. Enjoyable, entertaining and educational. The more viewpoints we listen to, the better we understand the problem and it’s solutions. And all solutions don’t involve mankind.
Thanks for sharing.

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Not only sun cycles and spots, but also our procession through the universe. A wise man once said.

"He who has no carbon footprint should cast the first carbon tax."

Ok. I was the one who said that. Great article @drakos!


I agree 110% with the content of this post! It is actually fantastic if you ask me! This post is well thought out and I consider outstanding content! Evidently many others think it worth commenting on as well! Look at the number of comments! Wow, I am jealous!

Much better than the first post which I perceived to be, low energy.

Now, here is a picture of a cat-fight for those of you that don't read posts thoroughly, but just read the comments for entertainment value...

Thought I would share the above gif as the comments are pretty civil on this post.

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So it seems @felipejoys is not happy with @drakos, his post, or my comment saying why I liked @drakos' post here. I am asuming this is why he is downvoting me. Well thank you for the downvote and here is why @felipejoys!

I assume you read my comment. I am glad that my opinion has grabbed your attention! I just noticed that your downvote manna is at around 0.31% that is a great deal of downvoting. I also counted around six posts on your blog that were just the same thing over and over. I checked out your blog because I was curious as to who you were and what type of content you shared on Steem. Never heard of you.

I am curious as to why you have used your delegation in such a manner? I mean it is your business, but I will restate to you what I tell everyone. I am not intimidated by anyone. Your downvote is a waste of time and manna.

I will tell you what I told @coininstant and friends (maybe he will upvote me for mentioning him): I will upvote what I wish, agree with what I wish, and your downvote does nothing more than bring me attention. Thank you for that. I appreciate it. This is all about me, baby. I mean it was me you downvoted, no?

Have a nice week and good fortune on #newsteem! Now let's get some popcorn for the shit-storm this comment will bring!

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The Greta post was to underline the ridiculousness of the issue. This post was to prove it.

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Good job. Appreciate you clarifying your thoughts and conclusions. Great post!

There is nothing to fear except fear itself.

Shame on those who use fear to manipulate others into doing their bidding.

but doesn't war that mass exterminate bipedal angry hairless apes, while starving and killing all those cute and adorable animals with endless ageless plastic reduce co2 emission....should contribute to fix up the global sauna bitching doctrine.....ahem i mean climate change right?

:P

Do you still believe what the "experts" tell you?

Thanks to the experts we can predict hurricanes, we have technology, we have science, many things. There are a lot of studies about climate change.

If you know it's a hurricane area (USA), or a volcanic area (Iceland), or a seismic area (Japan)... isn't it time to move to somewhere safer? Sometimes human logic escapes me.

This not make sense. Are you suggesting to move millions of people from Japan? to where? and create the buildings again?

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Thanks to the experts...

Hope has no meaning at all because what is important is what we are. What we actually are, not what we think we are, or what we think we should be...

Considering what the world is now, with all the misery, conflict, destructive brutality, aggression, tremendous advances in technology and so on... and on... and on... humanity has cultivated the external world and has more or less mastered it, but inwardly he is still as he was... the animal still in him is brutal, violent, aggressive, acquisitive, competitive. And he has built a society along these lines...

You are the world and the world is you.

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Climatologists have supercomputers to predict the weather, but their models work very short term, a few days at best. Which is a good thing, their work is vital for air travel and hurricanes, however they're not always accurate, despite their advanced technology. For example, tomorrow will be 50% chance of rain... ok, that means 50% of no rain. You have similar odds flipping a coin!

Even for hurricanes, they can't get it right:

Dorian is expected to slow as it approaches Florida, but forecasters say it's too soon to determine where the greatest impacts will be.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2019/08/29/hurricane-dorian-hit-florida-major-category-3-storm-labor-day/2149021001/

It's all statistics. If they can't get things right for a few days, how can they predict anything 1 year, even 10 years from now?

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The weather is a chaotic system, and yes, this is the reason behind the difficult to predict if it will rain in 2 weeks. However, this is true when you try to see it at local level, and finding specific things (like raining in a particular area).

But if you see it at the global level, then it is more easy to predict. You for sure know what is the average temperature of your city.

Look this image:


source

This is the temperature change relative to 1850, almost two centuries ago. Look the bull market! it is pretty clear the tendency for the next decade.

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The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare

The Maunder Minimum roughly coincided with the middle part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced colder than average temperatures.

The onset of the Little Ice Age also occurred well before the beginning of the Maunder minimum, and northern-hemisphere temperatures during the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from the previous 80 years, suggesting a decline in solar activity was not the main causal driver of the Little Ice Age.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

Furthermore:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/maunder-minimum

After 1715 AD, the number of observed sunspots increased sharply from near zero to 50–100 and the global climate warmed.

1.3.3 Temperature, Sunspots, and Total Solar Irradiance
Temperatures during the Maunder closely correlate with SSNs and TSI (Fig. 14.11). When SSNs and TSI are low, temperatures are also low, and when SSNs and TSI are high, temperatures are high.

So, given the high sustained solar activity in the last 300 years, it had a snowball effect (no pun intended) causing a steady increase in temperature, i.e. the sun doesn't care about human emissions. Humans think they can fight the sun?

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Maunder Minimum
The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers.
The term was introduced after John A. Eddy published a landmark 1976 paper in Science. Astronomers before Eddy had also named the period after the solar astronomers Annie Russell Maunder (1868–1947) and her husband, Edward Walter Maunder (1851–1928), who studied how sunspot latitudes changed with time. The period which the spouses examined included the second half of the 17th century.

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We should just sell our houses because you don't need a buyer, right? Everyone has infinite money!!!

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Whilst i may agree with u on many points, i would like to say that downvoting others because you dont share their opinion is not cool and prevents learning and progress... please dont do it!, no one knows the whole truth 100% so its wise to listen and hear what others opinions are... climate change may well be a result of only sun activity BUT even then we still need to change our ways for a long list of reasosns...

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Those others started the downvotes instead of initiating a civil discussion. They also have a history of being rude. One of them wished me to burn in a fire and get cancer. How should I respond to that? By being nice to their feelings and irrational behavior?

The sun is only one of the factors determining the climate.

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Mmm good to know..

i posted something like you are saying..last year
It brought on a shit storm ,,
But i stood by my reasoning...
but, we shouldnt be too sure about our opinions, because its too hard to say for sure... i always keep a small opening just in case im wrong.. just sayin’

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EDIT: retracted my downvote and redacted my comment. Was grumpy and hangry. Just got home from walking my dogs and I feel muchbetter.

Enjoy your day.

The problem is that a lot of the failed predictions actually were not called by scientists but by newspapers and other people falsely interpreting the papers of the scientists (Quite often even only reading the abstract and title).

Most of the scientific predictions are holding steadily on the long term.

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Not quite, some of the predictions about global warming ending the world in 10-12 years were made by the UN. So when I see so many lies from sources that should have some credibility, it makes me wonder if I should keep believing them. Also, back then, newspapers weren't plagued by fake news like we have today, so it's safe to assume their publications were based on "scientific" data.

https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 (1989)

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I'm not saying the newspapers did do fake news, I would say more like, the newspapers took out the worst case predictions for the least possible date and made it a "fact".

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!SHADE 5

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Well my latest single "nothing is done until it's done" could be read very much (not only as that ) but as a climate change warning also contamination/pollution/detaching from Nature. Yes, there have been doom and gloom prophecies but it would be a denial to say we are not affecting the balance. We do with plastic as well... we do decropping forests, we just "overdo" things. So if some of alarm is needed for people to pay attention I don't mind it. I have a rule though which is NEVER EVER discuss politics, religion or candent issues, I have my right to create my awareness but I always try to be respectful. It is true that life will adapt and thrive but I don't want the polar bears to go with it, and I don't want to suffocate in rainless extremely hot autumns, or lose my local groves in wild fires because all is dry. In some parts of the Earth is more noticeable. And it might not be "all" due to it, there are other factors that are not within our control, but well part of it is. What we think but STILL we lose nothing into pursuing a cleaner planet overall. :) I get here apparently after the buzz and fuzz but still I'll be honest about it :).

The Governments and the Elites controlling these systems know very well how to divert people's focus, make them believe what they want to and carry on their own agenda by making the common public feel they are doing all wrong things. The real time issues are never given that much weight and so convincingly they fool the public.

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Here is my take on the subject. If Climate Change is real then why the hell are the Politicians, Scientists and actors using more Fossil Fuels than anyone.... flying all over the earth telling people they need to reduce their Carbon Emissions. Friggin Hypocrites.

hey, @drakos sorry if I'm broking any ethics or rules, but I need for your help. I'm on steem almost 2 years and half and I'm voting for you as a witness for a long time. I see that you are in the team of creative coin and I'm running a content of creative coin. I'm willing to buy 1000 cretive coin and give it to the winner. I hope you will help me with the contest a bit. I rarely ask people of this kind of support, but I'm really struggeling with the community and now I want to try to spead our ideas among the tribes and to buy some tokens to support them.

Regards.

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I'd be happy to help, you can contact me on discord.