The unpredictability of free market

5개월 전

We say that the market cannot be predicted, but at the same time, we say that the market can provide education, health care, and even security. Is that even consistent? That is what this article is about.

Anarcho-capitalists and libertarians claim that the market is not predictable, which can be confusing to many people. At the same time, they claim that the market will solve a lot of problems (not all of them), including security (as now we have the police, on the free market there could be security agencies), health care, education, roads and so on.

We say that the market cannot be predicted, but at the same time, we say that the market can provide education, health care, and even security. Is that even consistent? That is what this article is about.

For a better understanding, it is good to ask: What is the market? The market is nothing more than that people want something and someone else gives it to them for money or other means of exchange (even barter). That is all.

So the market is shaped according to what people want. And thus, we can predict that things, that people have always demanded (and probably also will always demand), will exist on the free market. People always want security, education, health care... they always have the need to communicate and so on.

Thus... “What” can be predicted, but “How” cannot. A hundred years ago, I could have predicted that people will communicate somehow in the 21st century. And I could have had a number of different “How” ideas. But even my greatest fantasy would not be as good as reality.

A hundred years ago, it would be very difficult to estimate that mobile phones would exist (including video calls) and that we would have Internet together with communication applications such as WhatsApp, Telegram or Signal. And social networks. And blogs... and Wikipedia. And yet, what we have today has been created by competition. Different people competing in developing the best, the fastest, the safest way to communicate have brought us where we are today.

A hundred years is quite a long time. However, the market cannot be predicted even for a shorter period of time. When I was young, I did not like the fact that television broadcasts different things at different times. When I wanted to see a film that was broadcasted on Friday night, I had no choice but to wait for it. Back then, I imagined that television could display a list of films available that day, and I would just pick one of them and watch.

My prediction did not come true. Televisions still broadcast what they want. But I do not care. Youtube, Netflix, various other streaming services operate roughly as I imagined it back then. I would even say that the reality is far better than my vision.

However, one cannot predict the market as a whole. One cannot often even predict himself. What will I be like the next year? What will I desire? What will I need? What if I suddenly get excited about something and I will demand products related to it?

In fact, the market is just a certain algorithm. Whatever are the outputs of this algorithm, they are always just a reflection of what people want. And what they want is constantly changing. The market is dynamic because people’s desires and needs are also dynamic.

If the market was predictable, it could be planned centrally.

That is all for the unpredictability of the market. We, libertarians, can have many ideas on how the market would deal with different things. Yet, the reality will be different – probably much better – from our estimates. A bunch of entrepreneurs incentivized by profit and competing with each other can come up with far better solutions than me.


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Česky: https://www.mises.cz/clanky/nepredvidatelnost-trhu-2312.aspx
Author: Matthias Lukl


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It most definitely is unpredictable, but that's what keeps it exciting 😁

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Hi @laissez-faire
I saw your account and find your post which you uploaded last month. Please upload your posts for your followers. I am following you please follow me back. Thanks 😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘😘

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I looked at your account. Unfortunately, my passion for photography is not that big, so I won't follow you. I do not even watch those who I am following right now, I do not check it that much.

Thank you for your interest in our articles. We posted another one few moments ago. You can check that out. Have a wonderful day ;)

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I have not interested in photography but I am very busy that is why I am posted photos on my account so that I active on my account. My main passion for cryptocurrency. Very soon you find posts related cryptocurrency on my account. Thanks for replying me. God bless you always. 🌼🌼🌼🌼🌼🌼🌼🌼

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Great Read! Resteemed and Followed

Yes market cannot be predicted. Government needs to set up a framework and provide an expedited process to clear issues that they arise. The fake capitalist take the free market and close the door behind them. Its generally an unfair market ar this point.

One of the best articles I have read recently.... Kudos

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Interesting approach. Unpredictable indeed.

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Surprised that I do not see more articles like this, Anarchopulco should be on steemit left and right. Cheers.

Thank you for a great article. Read and feel when the phone does not have any applications. There is no game in addition to the snake game. There is a feeling that the market is developing fast according to human needs. It makes it necessary to be alert to this development. If we cannot have the desire for freedom in the future, we will not be able to do anything.

ขอบคุณสำหรับบทความดีๆ อ่านแล้วรู้สึกนึกถึงตอนที่โทรศัพท์ไม่มีแอพพลิเคชั่นใดๆ ไม่มีเกมส์เพล นอกจากเกมงู มีความรู้สึกว่าตลาดพัฒนาไปอย่ารวดเร็วตามความต้องการของมนุษย์ มันยิ่งทำให้ต้องตื่นตัวกับการพัฒนานี้อยู่เสมอ หากเราไม่สามารถมีความต้องการความเสรีในอนาคตเราก็ไม่สามรถที่จะทำการใดๆได้

Hello friend! hope you're all right... This is an interesting topic, and I can say your idea is clearly exposed. Market doesn't award those who don't sing in for the race.
As you said, the Liberal Social Economical Sistem is a Competition and there are no prizes for those who dont run in it.
Necessities for sure everyone have, but there is the clomplex aspect of the existence of the Market and the Gobernment both part of the State. It's been a pleassure to read you my young friend.

There is very little space for a govt in a free society.

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Who knows if there is any space for govt in a free society.

I agree with you,Market can not predictable.

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Its not easy to predict a changeable thing.

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Indeed. And that is the reason why central planning sucks.

@laissez-faire Nothing can be predicted nowadays anything can go deep down and shoot up till the sky.... Your blog really spread knowledge and information.... Thanks =)

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Very interesting.... it is very hard to predict.... thank you for the info @laissez-faire

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Hi,
This is logic from Steemcleaners.
Why are you curating such an extensive number of dlike spam & farm accounts?

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Some users (the smallest ones) care about every single upvote they get. If you upvote someone, it may happen that this guy will look at your account and that he will read some of your articles. So I got an idea to test this... I paid for delegation of 1000 SP and I give upvotes to many people. And some of them look at my articles. I started doing this few weeks ago and even this article started to get upvotes and comments despite the fact it is 8 months old.

I am just testing this way of gaining readers. Value of their upvotes is very negligible, but they are genuine readers... and that is what I care about.

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Hi. That's ok. I understand, that's all good.
But I asked why your curation has been on tens of dlike spam&farm accounts not actual real accounts/users?
There are tens of accounts I noticed your vote going to that are nothing more but spam of copypasta exploiting dlike (and breaking it's guidelines of use). They do nothing more except farming dlike and are part of multiple account scam group.
It appears that your curation only targets that specific group not the others.

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I am not spammer, laissez-faire is up voting me many time. Thank you.

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And where have you come from and why are you interrupting this conversation?

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Are these spammers really that significant group of authors that I upvote?

I know nothing about the spammers you talk about... I would say they are just a small group in contrast with the amount of other authors I upvote.

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This is not a competition here who is going to have the highest rank.
Please stop incentivizing spam farm accounts and encouraging trash posting by mindless, random upvoting in order to hit the highest rank.

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Free market is ineffective. It should be managed more. It is akin to driving a motorcycle at very high speed without holding the handlebars, nor any control over the brakes nor accelleration nor lights nor any other controls. It is wreckless abandon. The economy is far more efficiency being properly managed then left to it's own devices like a drunken fool. All monopolies need to be busted, and focus on lifting the consumer base is the key to radical capitalism.

thx 4 the upvote!

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I do not agree with you.
Please read for example these articles...
https://busy.org/@samotonakatoshi/money-and-prices-as-information-carriers

https://busy.org/@samotonakatoshi/state-interventions-as-information-destroyers

https://busy.org/@samotonakatoshi/criterion-of-usefulness

Here on laissez-faire account we will post something about monopolies in the future.

What do you mean by market market? It is better to write it once more. I do not understand anything good or bad! ?

Reminds me of the movie pie where a super math genious tried to figure out a formula to predict the stock market.

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Congratulations @laissez-faire!
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@samotonakatoshi purchased a 93.65% vote from @promobot on this post.

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