US Recession Imminent?

10개월 전

Has the US recession begun? You be the judge.


Source: pixabay

No one really hopes for a US economic recession as a decline in economic activity affects everyone in one or many different ways. However, there seemed to be a disparity in the news.

The newsstands are taking sides. It is interesting when different authors give different perspectives about the recession.

Some examples here are:

Don’t wish for a recession! Even if you hate Trump -- Yahoo! News

Parts of America may already be facing recession -- The Economist

Everyone is losing their mind about the possibility of a recession, but in reality the US economy is fine -- Business Insider

Why people should not get too worked up about recession fears -- CNN

Pro-Recession articles frown upon imminent economic disasters, referring to the beginning of worker layoffs, a gloomy economy and reduced investments. Whereas anti-recession articles paint a smile on everyone's faces, citing confidence in consumer spending, lack of searches in 'unemployment benefits' and strong manufacturing production.

Here's my take on recession:

Recession has already begun

Market forces are inevitable. But this is not true for an economic recession. Economic advisers learn from their mistakes in 2008. Policymakers will tweak every economic downturn so that it would not resemble a global-scale recession. The better the adjustments made to a country's economic policies, the better the economic stability.

A rising US population creates a buffer for market inflation and demand

Statistics from the US Census Bureau show that the US population rose from 304 million to 327 million in the last 10 years since the last recession. The increase of 23 million in the population of a developed country and surprising, compared to the UK which saw its population growing only from 62 to 66 million (2008 to 2017).

Population growth creates [an] increase in demand. Supply increase is needed to match the demand increase if inflation is to be kept in check. When supply cannot or does not increase with demand growth, inflation can rise quickly.
Source: Hemanshu Desai answered to a question on the relationship between the human population and its inflation rate on Quora

US-China trade wars: Boom or Bane?

The US trade war with China drew mixed opinions from senators. Most lawmakers 'agree with the administration's concerns about unfair Chinese trade practices', hence did not 'overtly challenge Trump's trade war'. Source: CNN

Will the trade war firm up the US economy or will the fallout with China lead to dire consequences? This could change the tide of the economy and any doubts about the recession.

-Tysler

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I wonder if your current administration + FED will manage to push next recession for another year or two @tysler

ps.
why wouldn't you share link to your publication on "project hope" telegram channel? You would surely get some valuable traffic.

Yours
Piotr

It is not only in the USA, the next recession will hit everywhere, and it is a very bad scenario that will play out. Since 08 the western world had been in tremendous default, world leaders have known this all from the start, that is also why, imo, you see so many stupid monetary decisions worldwide. They know they are in default, but they just try to keep the machine running while printing tremendous amounts of money, that nobody beside the 1% of the 1% profits off. Did you know that the 1% now holds half of the worlds riches alone? But where was i? O yeah, they try to keep the machines running, and in the background find a solution for when the music stops. it is like a game of musical chairs, they all hope there’s something left to sit on when the music stops. At the moment all the signs are there that bad times are coming, because realise yourself good, looking back at history, this global reset will come with a lot of bloodshed, war and terror, especially in the west (USA and Europe) which are so much in debt, they need hundreds of years to pay it back, and off-course they will find someone to blame, while their in their safe bunkers and panic rooms hiding out until the sun sets in again. I wish i had the money to build my family a safe haven, and arm ourselves for what could be coming. And meanwhile, i pray that consensus will kick in, and the fall will not be that hard. Because in the end, money is not something we need to live on earth, we are told so because we live in a capitalist society, what we need is a new system, a sustainable one