Why Now May Be The Time To Bet Against (Short) The Bond Market. By Gregory Mannarino

5년 전

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The Federal Reserve has made it very clear that they are determined to stick to a monetary tightening cycle, which means rate hikes are coming. This also means there is opportunity for us to short the bond market.

If you follow my work, you also know that I am one heck of an accurate predictor of what the Federal Reserve is a likely to do. As a matter of fact, I have been wrong only one time with regard to predicting when the Federal Reserve would actually raise rates ever since the Federal Reserve began talking about it. Only one time...

It is certainly no secret that the federal reserves unprecedented, never been seen before in the history of finance, interest rate/debt suppression cycle has been successful in re-inflating a housing bubble and a stock market bubble.
The fact that the Federal Reserve has not allowed the market to determine fair value for debt has created distortions across every single asset class.

Personally, all I want to do for myself (and for you), is to put us in a position to capitalize on these distortions.
The unwinding of the federal reserves unprecedented monetary policy is going to have far reaching consequences, and all of these will present us with opportunity.

If I am right with regard to the federal reserves next move, this will present to us with an opportunity to short the bond market.

The Federal Reserve meets next month, June, to discuss monetary policy changes.
In this meeting I expect that the Federal Reserve will be raising rates.
I also believe that the market will interpret the raising of the federal funds rate next month as a signal that more rate hikes are coming, what this also means is we should be looking to bet against the bond market.

One instrument that can be used to short the bond market would be via ticker BND, this is the Vanguard total bond market ETF. You could take a position against the bond market by buying puts on BND.

Now again, I could be wrong with my prediction that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike next month however, gauging from my past frankly extremely accurate record of predicting what the Federal Reserve is likely to do, I myself would not bet against my own call here.

Gregory Mannarino
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Well so far you've been pretty accurate as to what the Feds are thinking and their next move. I can't say for sure one way or the other as far as them raising rates, as you've said before nothing is real, up is down and down is up, and that steem is making us some crypto! I still believe in getting in on silver at these give away prices...
What I do see is housing being built all around here in Tampa, yet forclosures everywhere if you just look on zillow. I see housing so unaffordable that families lose them, they go to auction, companies come in, buy, renovate and flip or rent it out. More apartments going up everywhere yet it cost just as much to rent as it is to own. If they raise the rates, those who have adjustable rate type mortgage will crumble, less people will be able to keep up with the prices and the housing bubble will have to pop. I see this summer as very interesting when it comes to the crash of 2017. This just cannot go on. Something has to give and it will.

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I can see similar issues on the other side of the pond - I'm trying to buy house in Ireland and it's a complete madness here.

The fed will continue what they do, untill they are ready to see this thing fall. Everything resolves around the fed. Lets put an end to it and audit the fed. Then they will no longer have controll. Untill then you will just have to keep guessing when everything will go back to fair market value. Kepp stacking while its being manipulated.

The thing is... When the 'Reset' happens and the chaos begins currency will be useless as there will be nothing to spend it on and crime will be out of control. The question is not so much about how do I make more money but what do I need to do physically to survive it.

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You are correct, you should be spending the profits from trading on things you will need. Gold,silver food storage, water filters,guns ,ammo.these are some of the things

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When the Paper and Digital Fiat Dollars crash, one of my back up plans is to have Common Coinage that I think will still be used as a Medium of Exchange... Read a few of my Blogs on that topic...
@pocketechange

It's time to buy a troy ounce of physical gold. It'll be my first one. Still grinding to get my freaking signature of approval so that I can finally trade. Will keep you informed about my lion's share ;) see ya tomorrow!

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Hello @antgag

Respectfully I suggest purchasing physical Silver with the funds you are thinking to use in buying physical Gold.

Higher Gains in Silver

Either way, your on the right track to financial success my friend.

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So very True silver is my choice of metal to

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Amen brother!

I am following you and just upvoted you to.

Can you resteem my posts that interest you?
Thanks
Steemit @healthiswealth

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Sure Thing will do and thank you for following me .

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No worries

post, upvote and resteem that is easy money

Do you participate in @steemit-health free money give aways....

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Yes i actually followed them after reading a post :-)

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🍁 I just did a new post 🍁

Add a new entry daily to the draw 😜

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Going to make us rich!

I am following you and just upvoted you to.

Can you resteem my posts that interest you?
Thanks
Steemit @healthiswealth

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🍁 I just did a new post 🍁

Add a new entry daily to the draw 😜

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Just got mine. But level 1

Thanks a ton Greg for bringing Steemit to my attention off of youtube, I'm very pleased with the experience and will be for the told future, check me out here, friend^^ Of course I followed,voted resteemed!
Please everyone take an adventure.

@larutanton

Everything that I have read has indicated that there will be a rate increase in June. In addition, it seems as though the establishment is prepared to make a move to remove Trump from President. Subsequently, Greg has a very accurate history for calling rate changes and we would all be foolish to bet against him.

I would not be shocked to see Gregory Mannarino become a Steemit millionaire!

Very informative article and thanks for explaining how to short the bond market. Not everyone who wants to do this knows how to.

The Fed wants to reduce its balance sheet, isnt it a little bit counter productive to keep raising rates if this is their plan? They are the wizards of the economy maybe they will try a new spell.

This is a good thing to start thinking about. I guess we'll know more when we get a little closer.

G'day Greg,
What is your prediction for US stocks and gold when you are shorting the bonds? Gee wiz ay! Haha. What will a further rise in interest rates do to their 20 trillion? Even if it is a measly 0.25! Would I be correct in saying they have no intention of ever paying down this debt anyway?
Thanks buddy

what about puts on TLT? BND has corporate bonds which is not a pure fed rate play. but then TLT is long duration...

Thats a bold statement. As far as im concerned, your track record speaks for itself. Thanks for the updates Greg.

The FED is stuck so they will just keep raising rates and blame the crash on Trump!

just wait until it starts it will be fun

Thank you for the information.

If they raise rates June 14, the market will be nervous they will raise on a schedule similar to the Dot Plot, and that pace is too much.

Gregory Mannarino have you heard of the Web Bot report by Clif High?

There's one rule carved into stone: "You can bet against the market, but never bet against Greg!"

too early to short indices.

It's probably too early to go short, by a few months.

I agree. Fed will raise rates. They are so far behind the curve.

Though timing is important hold against the system not worrying about time. 1975 stated looking for this demise of our current system thanks to my father's persistence it will happen one way or another sooner or later. In the meantime play the makets within ones owns confidence and knowledge. As you say al so often.

Strong words Greg , you are brave, if you are right you will be the king !!!

Do you like shorting ST, MT, or LT bonds best here (or just short all 3 types for diversity)?

I totally agree, the bull market for bonds is over, and I read recently that the number of traders thinking there will be a rate hike in June jumped from 50% to around 80%.

Do you know what would be the best instrument for capitalize on it under ISA in UK? I'm looking for GBP denominated equivalent of BND.
BND is available under my ISA, but as it's denominated in USD I'm introducing an additional risk in GBPUSD exchange rates...

Greg, thank you for all that you do daily!

They may just taper their repurchases instead of actually "raising " the overnight rate, we'll see I guess who the heck knows

Been watching you Greg the last 2 years. I appreciate your hard work and dedication informing us of the real financial situation we are in. Thanks

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This is perhaps one of the most dangerous times in the entire life of this relatively young country we call the USA. I do not believe we are at all united any longer and the rhetoric and venom that is spewed is proof in my book. Silver will in my estimation no doubt be the currency of choice because of its ability to be appropriated fairly cheaply. Gold is great, but most people have a hard time affording it and I for one don't see it as a good trading mechanism because of its high cost. If the federal reserve does continue to raise rates as Greg suggests, you better have some kind of insurance to fall back on as many have suggested. With our country in turmoil nothing is cut and dry any longer. Personally I suggest you turn to Christ while there is still time!

Thank you Greg spot on as always !!

Never bet against the Fed, if their putting out the signals bet the right way!

What is the BEST way to short the bond market, if you are no longer a commodities trader?

Thanks for the insight.

Most people lose their shorts when they try to short, but I think we might be having a lot of lucky winners this time around :)

Soon i will start my first option trade, thank you, Greg. Looking forward to learn more from you! (y)

Thanx... re-steemed