Prognosis by Two German Analysts with a Proven Track Record

11개월 전

Last year I also translated a 2018 Geopolitical and Financial prognosis from the Epoch Times Germany.

If you page down below the German text, there is an abbreviated English translation of some of their predictions and assessments for 2019. Except for their bullish view on crypto currencies, they were rather accurate in their 2018 predictions, and they also were among the few who accurately predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016.

epoch 2019.JPG

Deutsch

Hier ist eine Prognose für 2019 von einem Meinungsartikel aus der Epoch Times. Man kann das original Stück link hier lesen, oder sich unten von meiner schnellen Englischübersetzung einen Überblick verschaffen.

Nach der enormen Resonanz auf unseren Ausblick 2018 und den erschreckend vielen eingetroffenen Prognosen unsererseits (Wahlausgänge und Erstarken der extremen politischen Parteien, vor allem in Europa, das Ende der Ära Merkel, Korrektur an den Aktienmärkten, Macrons Scheitern, Bodenbildung bei Gold, Absturz der Deutschen Bank etc.), präsentieren wir Ihnen unsere Prognosen für 2019.

Deutschland – ein Land demontiert sich selbst und die fetten Jahre sind vorbei! Zeit gelbe Westen anzuziehen? Leider können wir den Politikzirkus in Berlin, Brüssel, London, Paris, Washington… nicht mehr ernst nehmen. Wir sind zu der traurigen Erkenntnis gelangt, dass offensichtlich Komiker die Macht übernommen haben. Anders ist das lächerliche und absolut weltfremde Theater nicht mehr zu erklären.

Nach wie vor plündern internationale Konzerne Länder, ja ganze Kontinente aus, zahlen kaum Steuern, während die Mittelschicht immer rücksichtsloser zur Kasse gebeten wird. Global wird gezündelt, Geld gedruckt und die politischen Eliten geben ein Bild ab, welches oftmals an Peinlichkeit, Weltfremdheit und Inkompetenz nicht mehr zu überbieten ist.

Brief English Translation

from Weik & Friedrich Outlook 2019:

The end of the establishment parties will be ushered in - bull market is at its end – a recession is coming!

By Marc Friedrich & Matthias Weik / Guest authors 21. January 2019 Epoch Times

Whether it’s Germany, Europe, Asia, USA, Africa, Brexit or the European Central Bank (ECB) - the world has gone crazy.

After the tremendous response to our outlook for 2018 and the shocking number of predictions we got right (election results and strengthening of the extreme political parties, especially in Europe, the end of the Merkel era, correction on the stock markets, Macron's failure, gold bottoming, the crash of Deutsche Bank etc.), here is our forecasts for 2019.

Germany is a country that is dismantling itself and the glory years are over! Is it time to start wearing a yellow vests? Unfortunately, we can no longer take the political circus in Berlin, Brussels, London, Paris, Washington ... seriously. We have come to the sad realization that obviously comedians are in control. There’s no other way to explain the ridiculous and absolutely unworldly spectacle.

As before, international corporations are plundering countries, even whole continents, paying little tax, as the middle class is ruthlessly forced to cover the costs. Global consolidation, money printing – it is impossible to exaggerate the embarrassing, out-of-touch, and incompetent manner in which the political elites present themselves…

END OF MERKEL ERA
On 7th December, the CDU decided to elect Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as party leader as Merkel 2.0. We strongly doubt this will renew or advance the party. We maintain that with Kramp-Karrenbauer as the Chancellor candidate, the CDU won’t achieve the goal of 40% in the next federal election, rather they will lose voters and end up at 30%. In the spring we expect a bad result for the CDU in the EU parlimentary election.

After the EU parliamentary election Merkel will resign. The EU parliamentary election will be a disaster for the establishment parties. We assume that: Angela Merkel will leave after a devastating election result in the EU parliamentary election.

THE GREENS – AN OVER-HYPED PARTY

In 2019 the currently much hyped Greens will lose their luster after state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia and be punished for their unrealistic policies.

AFD – WILL RECEIVE EVEN MORE VOTES IN 2019

More and more voters, especially in the Eastern states, are fed up with the governing parties and will also give their vote to the AFD in 2019 as a protest. Especially in the state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, but also in the general election for the EU parliment, we assume double-digit election results for the AFD.

IN GERMANY INJUSTICE WILL BECOME EVER MORE DRAMATIC

Meanwhile, in the country of the export world champion; 25 percent of employees, that is almost 9 million people, work in the low-wage sector. A scandal and a ticking time bomb!

In the future more and more people will slip from the middle to the lower class and the images of bottle-collecting pensioners will increasingly determine our cityscape.

The pension level will continue to decline in Germany in the future, and it is becoming more and more difficult for more and more people to adequately provide for their old age.

DEATH OF THE BANKS

Another cycle is the end of banking as we know it. This can also be clearly seen in the share prices of listed banks. Also in 2019, banks will close more branches, merge or settle. We as customers will suffer from rising fees and less service.

DATA. THE GOLD OF THE FUTURE, IS MOVING TO THE USA

Data is the gold of the future. The problem, however, is that Germany and the rest of Europe have already missed the boat in this area. Whether Alphabet Inc. (Google), Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Alibaba (China), Tencent (China) or Netflix - the largest 20 Internet giants do not come from Europe - twelve of the top 20 come from the US and eight from China. While politicians in Europe are still debating, reality has long since been created in the US and China.

THE WAR ON CARS CONTINUES

The war against the automobile will continue in 2019. First, they will strangle diesel with Euro 4 and Euro 5 restrictions, and then Euro 6 restrictions, and finally they will go after the gasoline engine. More and more we are preached to about the supposedly environmentally friendly electric vehicle. The fact that the extraction of the required raw materials for the batteries is responsible for an incredible amount of pollution and environmental destruction is ignored by the electric vehicle advocates - because after all, the environmental destruction takes place in Africa, South America and Asia…

Currently, only one in every 1,000 cars on German roads is electrically powered. For new sales, there are only seven out of 1,000. As a result, we do not see the year of the electric car for 2019.

GERMANY IS NOT THE BIG EURO WINNER

Germany is not (despite what is continuously and falsely claimed by politicians) the big Euro-winner. Since the introduction of the euro, prosperity went down with the German in relation to the entire EU. In 1998, GDP (per inhabitant in purchasing power standards) was 125 percent in Germany and only 123 percent at the end of 2017.

The big EURO losers are the countries of Southern Europe. The largest beneficiary is the low-tax country Ireland (183 percent). More than ever, it is clear that the euro is dividing Europe and therefore an end to the eurozone is foreseeable. This will happen by 2023 at the latest.

BREXIT - a nightmare for Northern Europe

The Brexit will come and we expect a hard and dirty Brexit. In the case of a tough Brexit, we expect to soon have the largest tax haven in the middle of Europe - Britain.

For the most part, the media is talking only about the grave consequences for Britain - Europe's second largest economy - but not for Germany. The Brexit is expensive for Germany, very expensive.

EU AND THE EURO

Extreme parties are on the rise and the ECB will continue to pursue its insane policy of cheap money in 2019. The interest rates will, as we predicted a year ago stay at 0 and remain there. However, prices will continue to rise. Although the ECB has officially abandoned its buy-out program, this is a scam, as the ECB will replace expiring bonds with new bonds…

The fact is: the euro is too weak for Germany and way too strong for the countries of Southern Europe. Under the euro, the countries of Southern Europe will no longer be economically viable. When this recognition will dawn on our political elites (if at all) we dare not predict. As a result, parties on the left and right margins will continue to grow steadily, not only in Southern Europe.

FRANCE - with yellow vests in the next revolution?

As we expected, the 2017 elected president Macron of France and his team failed to deliver. He is meanwhile the most unpopular president of the country.

The people are now wearing yellow vests and rebelling – over 70 percent of the French sympathize with the yellow vests.

CHINA - total surveillance and end of the long-standing boom

What "1984" author George Orwell predicted 70 years ago is now coming true in China. The Communist Party (KP) is introducing a scoring system that aims to educate citizens and use surveillance to control people in order to secure power. The CP shows us what is possible in a digitized world and what digitization can mean if misused by the wrong people...

The People's Republic of China, with its gigantic shadow banking system and pump-driven investment mania, was (in addition to the cheap money from various central banks) responsible for the global upturn. Now in its ninth year, the global upturn is paralyzed.

Now China is beginning to feel the consequences of Trump's policy. Now the Middle Kingdom is noticeably running out of steam and a gigantic real estate bubble is waiting for the big bang…

INVESTMENT SUMMARY

In summary, one should invest in tangible assets and continue to diversify widely.

Dax under 10K

Euro over 1.20

Gold over 1400 USD / silver over 18 USD

If the central banks manipulate again, the markets will rise - which does not mean that the crisis is over, but has only been moved further into the future.


What do you think of their predictions for 2019?


Photo from pxhere.com and a screen save

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Ich habe die ersten beiden Bestseller von W&F ... ;-)

Can anyone tell me the point of writing a post in two languages?

Posted using Partiko Android

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So that readers who understand the language of the original article are made aware of its existence and can follow a link and read it in its entirety. Secondly, so that those who don't understand the original article have the opportunity to glean some of the salient points made in the original article.

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I read it in both language I ve better level of English than a German aber mein Liebling Sprache ist Deutsch es ist kompliziert