Results of my Bellator Picks This Saturday


Current ROI is negative: -23% (AWFUL)
MMA record keeping started on: Mar 2, 2019
Total units risked so far (always flat 1 unit): 39
Total units won or loss so far: -8.972 units
Current record and negative ROI: (20-18-1), -23% (AWFUL)

Yup, another night of awful capping by me.

Here's a recap of my predictions and what actually happened:

Tywan Claxton (2.02) vs Emmanuel Sanchez (1.854)
sanchez might have faced higher ranked opponents in his career but Claxton is the better athlete IMO. Sometimes that's enough. Being the stronger more athletic fighter should allow Claxton to spam takedowns against Sanchez or light him on the feet towards a decision win.
My pick is the Tywan Claxton moneyline.

Claxton no longer unbeaten as he was beaten pretty easily by Sanchez who submitted him in the 2nd round. I think I need to be careful in the future about fighters with unbeaten records against mediocre competition.

Derek Campos (2.83) vs Daniel Straus (1.460)
Classic striker vs wrestler match. Unless Straus has completely lost it, I think he should be able to use his wrestling and pressure to at least take a decision win over Campos. A finish isn't out of the question but unlikely though.
My pick is the Daniel Straus moneyline.

Daniel Straus looked like crap in this fight. I thought he would be the better wrestler but instead it was Campos taking him down with ease. Just seems like Straus isn't the same fighter since his motorcycle accident. How lopsided of a win was this for Campos? Judges gave him scores of 30-26, 30-25, 30-25.

Cheick Kongo (4.65) vs Ryan Bader (1.205)
Kongo is one of the oldest fighters still fighting but he's still got pop in his hands and decent wrestling. Bader is the better fighter overall with good standup and better wrestling. He's also Bellator's double champ holding both the light heavyweight and heavyweight belts. This fight though is 5 rounds and if Kongo can land a lucky punch here and there, an unlikely upset TKO is possible. This pick is basically a value bet based on the odds. I think Kongo should be an underdog but just not at 4.65 odds.
My pick is the Cheick Kongo moneyline.

My Kongo pick was likely head towards a loss as Bader was dominating the opening round but an accidental eye poke from Bader made the referee stop the fight which was subsequently ruled a no contest. No contest means the fight is null and void so no loss for me there.

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