Did the chain halt affect steem-engine tokens?

3개월 전

While many of us (including me) had to live trough 36 involuntary blockchain free hours (that had good and bad aspects... ;-) ) I wondered how the order books of the steem engine tokens would react.

So what would you expect? Nothing good as if the market is grinding to a halt and no trading is possible that is usually bad for any market.

But I made the following observation:
Beer tokens and DWD tokens both increased quite significantly in price during the "black-out".
So what does this tell us?
Tell me! I can only post here what I think might be the background to this.. could be all wrong though...

From my point of view this says two things:

1.) As new sell orders could not be put into the system, the seller should be small-amount-token-holders that go over the normal steem-engine / steemconnect pathway to the exchange. This access ways blocked, hence no new sell orders and the price went up.
2.) Large buy orders still were in the system and as those orders are usually single, large quantity orders that are replenished day over day if they are filled. As no new sell orders came in, the price increased. (see above)

So my interpretation:
Im both tokens the buyers are larger accounts and the sellers smaller accounts, which by "psychologic market theory" could be a bullish sign for those tokens. ("smart money")

But whenever you trade tokens here: Look at the bid and ask spread! Do not overpay, stay patient and put also orders in on the bid side, do not only buy from the ask side!

DISCLAIMER:
I am long BEER and DWD
!NO INVESTMENT ADVICE! THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ANY TOKEN GOING TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE OF ZERO! WHILE I MAKE BEARISH OR BULLISH COMMENTS ON A TOKEN I MIGHT AT THE SAME TIME (OR PRIOR OR AFTER) TRADE THE EXACT OPPOSITE POSITION!

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This is an interesting post. I think that the downtime took a lot of people by surprise. Existing orders couldn't be changed and it was quite difficult to guess when the chain would be up again. It addition to that it was possible to access the chain through certain nodes, but not all of them. I think that people who were quick to get back online could profit from some interesting opportunities.

Best regards,
Achim

Good one, but I think the economy of most tokens is wrongly set up so they will loose their value over the time. But we will see, maybe I am wrong with that one.

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atm... unfortunately you are 95% right.. apart from the gaming tokens there is little economic use implemented..

That's an interesting observation. I think your analysis or interpretation as to why the price increased makes sense. I wonder if the prices will stay a little higher than normal now that the blockchain is up a running again. We will see I suppose.

Posted using Partiko Android

Howdy dear friend @solarwarrior.

While many of us (including me) had to live trough 36 involuntary blockchain free hours (that had good and bad aspects... ;-) ) I wondered how the order books of the steem engine tokens would react.

When those distressing hours were going by, I also tried to sell tokens on steem-engine. At that time I wondered what would happen to the market since they were several hours without activity.

I have noticed that the price stability of some steem-engine tokens is very fragile. For example, trying to sell 1000 tokens can lower the quotation price, to the point that your order does not sell all. Then you must cancel your current order and make one with the new price.

Then it is expected that this blackout would affect the market economy.

Thanks for sharing.

Your friend, Juan.

But whenever you trade tokens here: Look at the bid and ask spread! Do not overpay, stay patient and put also orders in on the bid side, do not only buy from the ask side!

Thank you, this is a very important tip!
The fact that many sell their DWD tokens far below the price compared to the shop prices on the game itself, is surely due to the fact that many want to compensate for their losses by buying into the game with Steem, even with a lot of Steem. Whether this pays off with the few DWD rewards, I don't think so.
I trade a bit with the DWD tokens myself, although I am not a DW player, only my son plays it every now and then, he has also pointed out to me that these tokens could possibly become more valuable, since many sold tokens after changing to DWD tokens and the amount of available tokens for players will soon be less. And some players are still upgrading for Drugs production, weapons and Alk.
Just for comparison:
in the shop: 41 DWD tokens cost about 14 Steem
on Steem Engine 25 DWD 1 Steem
or it's gonna be really bad:

in the shop 4177 DWD cost about 1400 Steem
on Steem Engine: approx. 3000 DWD for approx. 120 Steem

so there's real air up there! But I personally think that the DW players are getting less and less day by day, so it's definitely a high risk token!

If you're a DW player, have fun and fight well! 🤠

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@reiseamateur:
THX for your reply.
Forget the shop price, just do not look at that, at least atm... it is not relevant.
I was in on DW after the first week already and spent over 300 steem on my account...
this is quite a high and unfortunate number.. most people only spent 60 and already broke even after 4 weeks...
I broke even only by 50% after the first 4 weeks when the steem payouts still were very high..
and then the future tokens have been airdropped proportional to that spent 300 steem.. and by selling those on the stupid obyte wallet, even at those low future prices there, I broke even, and even went into positive territory.. so whenever someone claims he lost steem / money on DW this could technically onyl be possible by coming very late to the game or by spending even more then the 300 steem...

Hi @solarwarrior

Interesting read. I didn't even think about steem-engine and the fact that users couldn't trade while entire steem blockchain was down.

Im honesly not sure if this halt would change much. Those who wanted to sell or buy needed to wait a little bit longer than usual to trade. Maybe some people would get scared and start panicking (some could not being aware why SE isn't working at that moment).

I resteemed your publication on @project.hope and also on our telegram channel.

Hopefully it will allow to get some extra traffic and exposure to your publication.

ps.
I would also like to thank you for your latest supportive comment. My latest post has been downvoted by over half million SP (attack of few accounts), however I also received solid support and few strong upvotes and now I will be enjoying the biggest genuine payout in my lifetime ;)

Strong upvote on the way :)
Yours, Piotr

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It actually did indeed impair the trading and order books.. as I said.. it seems that on the sell side there a re many small orders / small sellers and at the buy side only a few but big buyers...

@solarwarrior, You've shared your views towards this and it's appreciable aspect. We have to understand one thing and that is this kind of Downside is ineffective but at the end of the day we have to deal with the Technical aspects. Stay blessed.

Posted using Partiko Android

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@chireerocks: sorry, I do not get your statement.. could you please elaborate a bit more?

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Yes. Actually i wanted to express that, Pause and Downside phase due to Hardfork issues is ineffective because pause is ineffective, but at the end of the day we have to deal with Technical stuff because we cannot fully control it. Have a great time ahead.

Posted using Partiko Android

I don't know if the same... but when I sell a token, I use the first value of BID LIST (green values, the greater value) and when I want to buy I use the first value of ASK LIST (red values, the smaller value) 👀

I was very scared too... By that time neither Bittrex nor Binance did trade STEEM...😨

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yes.. and this was what I am referring too.. if you want to buy you could also set a higher bid value and just wait.. as well vise versa when you sell with the ask value... if you do it like you do you get your desired token trade asap, but you will always pay the bid / ask spread..

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I will try your way... But of course, a day when I don't necessarily need to exchange (trade) a cryptocurrency urgently 😊

Hello my dear @solarwarrior, really were moments of great tension and uncertainty. However, I noticed that prices stopped, were frozen.

Very good your observation, thanks for sharing that data
@fucho80

In my view, if this is a concern, ask for auditing logs. They should be able to give you this. And then you can compare with what STEEM blockchain as publicly available.

In terms of privacy, this should not be a concern... at least not if we all want SMT's to come one day. =) This is my view.

Funny you mention blackout. My Internet was knocked out for a couple of days.