Keep It In Perspective: Steem Is Only Three Years Old

4개월 전

We live in a world of instant gratification. This is something we cannot deny and most of us are apt, at least partially, to fall into this trap.

We want what we want and we want it now.

At the end of each post, I have a picture that says "Vision 2025". This is reminder to keep a long term perspective on things.

"It took me ten years to become an overnight success."

I don't know who coined this phrase but it seems to apply across many facets of life. Unfortunately, things take time to develop, a fact that is at odds with the instant gratification we tend to seek.

This is no truer than in the field of technology. Development takes time and failures are a part of the process. Ford became one of the biggest car companies in the world yet it had the Edsel along the way. Air travel is one of the safest form of transportation today, something that was not true in the 1940s and 50s. Research and development goes down a lot of dead ends before arriving at a breakthrough.

Amazon is one of the most successful companies in the world today. The growth rate over the last two decades is nothing short of amazing. Here is what it looks like on a chart.


Source

This is a classic exponential growth chart. The first iterations look like little is happening. Growth, no matter how it is viewed at the time, is nothing compared to what is going to hit. People mistakenly believe little is going on until it is too late.

Retailers all over the United States fell prey to this. Amazon started as an online book store, being a niche player that posed no threat to most companies. The first few years, little took place.

Notice how the explosion starts around the 2009-2010 time period. There is a reason for that. Another exponential mechanism was kicking in.


Source

Around that time, the number of objects the company dealt is was increasing drastically. Suddenly, the online bookstore was much more than that.

We see similar mechanisms all over the place. I believe we are witnessing it taking place both on Steem and within the crypto world in general. In fact, it is even bigger than crypto since that is only one piece to another puzzle.

The Internet took more than a decade to really penetrate the human psyche in the West. What was available in the late 1980s was nothing compared to the end of the dotcom era. While there was a lot of fluff, much technological progress took place.

What is important here is that cryptocurrency is akin to email. It is just one application. People mistakenly look at this industry as financial instead of technical. While the financial component is obvious, it is only a small piece of the pie.

We are embarking upon the creation of Web 3.0. It is not something that happens overnight. A ton of development is required before the technology is even close to being useful to the general public. Unfortunately, there are no shortcuts.

Just like the early days of the Internet, it is difficult to picture what technologies we will have in a decade. Social media was not on the minds of most of the early programmers. The idea of sending videos around the world was probably viewed as preposterous when dial-up networks were being used with a very slow baud rate.

Bitcoin is ten years old. This network had a decade to develop and for people to start following it. Steem is a bit over 3 years old. What did Bitcoin look like in 2011-2012? How many people were actively involved with it then?

I read an article last week that talked about Ethereum being four years old. Here is a quote from one who is building upon that network. It talks about the idea of Ethereum as the world's virtual computer.

“I think in four years, Ethereum will be moving past the hardest parts of its ambitious goals around proof-of-stake and scaling. At that point, the network will be able to onboard more users and we’ll start to grow beyond the use cases we are seeing today.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-4-years-ethereum-look-211519595.html

Are you kidding me? Four years?

That is no joke. This is how people heavily involved look at things. They understand the challenges before them and the mass interconnected web of development that needs to take place to reach a destination. It is not as simple as slapping together some code and, presto, a week later massive change is up and running.

Now let us apply this to Steem. How many on here can honestly say they are looking a number of years down the road? Do you think most took the time to consider how long things take to develop and the projected path of what can be accomplished at that time? Are most on here understanding the trajectory that development takes? Or is it just look at where things are today and assume that is how it will always be?

Here is another quote from the article linked above.

“I believe that ethereum will achieve the original ‘world computer’ vision within the next four years because Ethereum 2.0 will have completed its roll-out. We will have mature scaling solutions (at all layers) and we will have proper privacy solutions.”

These people are looking at Ethereum on a time frame that is a year longer than Steem has been around. Basically, these two believe the world's computer is achievable by 2023.

How many people on Steem are looking at the same horizon?

Obviously, to be fair, Steem's goals versus Ethereum are a bit different. The challenges ahead of Ethereum, in my opinion, are much greater than Steem. Essentially, Ethereum spent fours years getting to the point where it needs to convert from POW to POS. This is a major upgrade that is going to impact everything on the ecosystem and I can envision being a total nightmare to implement.

That is not to say it will not work out. The point is that time, simply, takes time. Many who are working with Ethereum realize that. We are now at the point that people on Steem start to accept that also.

If we look at what took place since the beginning of the year, it is mind-boggling. Some of the solutions that we are using each day were not even available when 2019 entered the picture.

What do you think will happen over the next four years? Heck, where will things be by next Spring? If the things that were already announced come into being, we will be light years from where we are today.

Can you imagine if the Internet had as much publicity in 1992 as cryptocurrency/blockchain today? What kind of articles do you think would have been published?

I bet we would have seen things like:

"It will never work."
"The Internet is a scam."
"Online publications are not real publications."
"The Internet is not reputable like mainstream media."
"The Internet is only for drugs, guns, and hookers." (that was actually thrown about)

The difference was that when the Internet was being developed, it did not have the Internet as a place where people posted their views on things. That is not the case today.

@exyle talks about Steem being the "opportunity of a lifetime". Time will tell if he is right or not but I will say, his actions are following that belief. Others will rip that idea apart as being crazy. After all, STEEM is going to zero according to many.

The funny thing is I do not see that sentiment expressed by those who are actively working on projects tied to Steem. Those people, usually technical in nature, seem to have a different outlook.

Either way, in the creation of Web 3.0, the three year history of Steem is just a blip in time. This process will take more than a decade to complete. There will be many ups and downs along the way which is standard in the tech world.

I believe Steem offers people an opportunity like they never had before. However, Steem will not provide instant gratification. If that is what is sought, perhaps watching a movie better serves that need.

The benefit to being an early adopter is the ability to share greatly in the wealth created. On the other hand, the drawback is having to wait until the foundation is in place before much noticeable happens.

It is a lesson in patience to say the least.

By the way, I looked Amazon's stock chart, notice how it tells a different story than the two referenced above.

amzn.png

It is hard to see but look at how the price went up into the $100 range during the dotcom bubble only to pop (along with everything else). The price languished for 7 years before people caught on to what was happening and the stock returned to that level.

The point is the other charts told the story long before the price action of the market did. Those who were able to see what was going on in spite of the stock price made out very well.

I feel those who are involved in Steem are experiencing something similar. While the pricing action sucks, other "charts" are telling a much different story.

Is it a prelude to what is coming down the road?

I believe so. Give it some time, grasshoppers. We are on a journey that will help to change the world. This will not happen overnight.


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After boom comes bust in crypto its how it works. Remember it and learn from it.

You have a far bigger reach than me. We are only ranked #2 on the noonies contest.
7 days left to become social media of the year... could you do a post about it?

As I was reading your post, I was thankful for the positivity that you bring to the Steem Blockchain, however, what I think that people really need on here is something to LOVE.

I LOVE the opportunity I have here. I LOVE growing my steem power , I LOVE that I am halfway to being a dolphin, I LOVE sharing my writing, I LOVE having a writing platform that is backed by tech geniuses. I LOVE sharing my time here, especially with the #steemitmamas.

But I don't see evidence of anyone else already loving the blockchain, and already being grateful for it.

I see a little "hopeful for opportunity" but no, "If the blockchain remains as is, then I will be happy because this is a great place." (I get more reader's every day, and 40,000 is a lot of eyes, if I eventually bump into EVERYONE here ) Steemit will eventually run out of steem to sell, and there is a core of us, who will continue to buy steem, and eventually it will be all bought up, and then there will be nowhere to go. Its a matter of time. And in the meantime, we can LOVE the space we are in, because it's pretty awesome.


Posted via Marlians.com
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If you start here there is no way to post or engage to others, it will be harder to grow.
You love to be a dolphin I do not care about being one. I just want to be able to write and comment.

Many people think this way. They like to be heard and you are limited if it comes to that if you start here. That is one of the biggest problems, problems you don't have if you are on Facebook, blogspot and WordPress.

I am a writer in the first place. I do not write what I like here since most people don't care or like to read.
I write here to join contests and hope to grow since without SP I can not post and am not able to post.

Most people are not interested in the technology behind it, perhaps if it comes to mining.

If it comes to evidence someone loving the blockchain I think the small group posting daily, answering, commenting is enough evidence and most of them are redfish and minnows.

I do not read many negative posts so perhaps you are in a different circle as I am?
💕

Posted using Partiko Android

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I was investing in websites and classes to “develop an online business” before. It was costing me $$$ just to have a space for myself.

Then I would lose the ability to keep my account going and I would lose all my work.

I don’t compare Steem to Facebook or Twitter - I compare it to setting up your own platform.

“If all the “coaches” would come here and share their wealth instead of constantly trying to build their own sites - and all of their invested money on programs was invested in SP instead” etc etc. That’s why I came here. I can imagine all the small micro businesses having a place in steem instead of paying bluehost 9.99 forever.

I don’t expect everyone here to invest in the blockchain, but I do think the blockchain needs those who are willing to invest the $20 it would take to get you to comment unlimited.

You can read everything on here for $0 and eventually grow nothing to something.

Content creators can invest $20 and have their words live on the blockchain without having to worry about storage fees.

My circle is mostly #steemitmamas, but when I hear 👂 negative talk I include “If you start here there is no way to post or engage others” There is a way.

To people who can’t comment a whole lot or even upvote - that’s ok. When they are ready to do more, they can spend the $20 or get someone to sponsor them through discord which is free.

It’s not impossible to start without money, it just takes more time.

PS I am a reader and would LOVE to read some of your work if you would be willing to share.

Posted using Partiko iOS

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Sorry, but I still do not agree with you of you say there is always a way.

No wat you can find out about Discord and just ask for someone to sponsor you if you are new here.

No way you can even join a Discord group without an invitation link or with a slow connection (which I have).

Most new Steemians are not noticed at all and have no clue what to do.

The FAQ is not complete and hard to understand especially if you are not a native speaker.

Many Discord groups are messy and chaotic and always the same 4-5 people are chatting. The response is low and you must like it to be there. I don't (I agree what works for an other does not need to work for someone else).

I wonder what a site here would look like.
The same way as an account now? If that is the case it's useless without register or search option.
I can not even find my elderly posts back which is a big minus. Even when I search via Google it is impossible. The tags used cannot be found back via Google so no one can find you, your posts, your account or your website.

If it comes to reading... that is free everywhere, not only here. The biggest problem is how to find what you are looking for?

There is a big difference between being negative and realistic!

If you close your eyes for reality/facts problems will never be solved and these problems I mentioned exist.
Most people blog out of fun, some might have an other reason like a business or because they are a writer etc.. but fact is this is not the place to start you onlineshop yet, nor a writers site.
Things have to change first.

If only Steemians can find my shop I have a big problem. If they cannot find the products I sell it is a huge problem.

To support STEEM you can also buy STEEM. If not here with an other wallet, but as long as the top keeps selling I wonder how many investors are interested or have faith in this part of the blockchain.

Like I said many times before (perhaps not to you) till today I do not know how to buy or sell steem via my steemit wallet. No one explained it to me. It is a great example of how it works here.

Business is about making money, you only invest in something promising. Perhaps palnet is or steemleo will be more interesting although to outsiders it is all steem which means steemit.

As Greece was bankrupt the few wealthiest families could rescue the country and refused.. quess why?

I wish you a happy day and hope you can build here a great business and others will see the benefits of it too.
If you have some adresses of a site on steem please send them to me. I am curious to see what they look like.

Happy day 💕

Posted using Partiko Android

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I LOVE the optimism you exhibit. Truly admirable. Be blessed.

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Thank you for the blessings ❤️

Posted using Partiko iOS

Don’t forget Ford also had the Pinto!

Posted using Partiko iOS

Don't worry guys. You will see 10$ steem by 2021 end. BTC will carry its siblings up when it is done riding its own wave.

let's hope we have a planet to run this blockchain on by 2025 ;) -- gotta have a war to fix an economy. hf21 will be that, i'll still be here, reading your awesome content, great to see your vids on dtube too.

I remember Amazon below $20 after the bubble popped! Only a blip on the chart now which could be what we are seeing now across the ecosystem as it continues to be built and developed!

Posted using Partiko iOS

Well...yup things take time, know that, but we all want to make money and sometimes get impatient. I know 5 years is a good period to see what the prices of the cryptos would be from now. Mwanwhile, just get involved in spreading some blockchain love and crypto love, its actually interesting.

I am not such of a steemit fan, so can't comment. But I will keep commenting, liking and posting articles for its what I came to Steemit to do, when it was doing badly when I joined last year in October.

But I see things have turned around... will try keep an eye, I am hawk for altcoins like ADA that trains you to develop patience anyway. Good luck to Steem team to build great content platform.

I love your post and your works to show to people how great this technology we have. I am reading more your post

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Thank you so much for participating in the Partiko Delegation Plan Round 1! We really appreciate your support! As part of the delegation benefits, we just gave you a 3.00% upvote! Together, let’s change the world!

A good read for those who are pessimistic. An extremely well reasoned post on how technology businesses develop and mature.

Thanks for sharing the charts. I found them very interesting. It appears that Amazon's network effect reached a critical mass around 2009 - 2010 (after about 12 years in business) and Amazon is still capable achieving much more than what it has already achieved.

I believe in STEEM but my trust in Steemit is over for the biggest part. This has mainly to do with the top not believing in their own product and ripping it ASAP so they get back what they invested.
It proves they do not have a long term vision. The one each Gardner and starter of an own business has.

They are completely different from Amazon where service to the customer is the highest priority.

Steemit Inc is more about making it attractive for people to join, empty promises and run out with their pockets filled. So I can imagine why people say it is a scam and there are so many account unused.

I hope after the next fork it won't be worse and the ghost town people already talk about turns out to be untrue. For now I do believe the other steem sites make a better chance to grow.

💕

https://steemit.com/wirex/@obhutara/wirex-s-stellar-blockchain-based-wxt-toke
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