Is it Housing Bubble Bursting Time?

2개월 전

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In this video, I calculate an approximation of the average new mortgage burden compared to the median household income. TL;DW? 30+%.

World Wide Bubble Risk: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/which-cities-have-highest-risk-housing-bubble
FOIA for NYC LLC Condo Owners: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/rip-mask-anonymous-llcs-nyc-billionaires-set-be-exposed-new-housing-law
Council on Foreign Relations (Yes, THAT Council on Foreign Relations) article on imminent housing recession: https://www.cfr.org/blog/housing-market-points-recession-election-day


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Housing is also taking n sharp dive in my country.

I was hoping to buy a place at the bottom which I think will be next year around this time...

When is your guess for the bottom?

When you have some time let me know what you think of this post Breaking The Bank When Buying A House Or Unit. Perhaps you have some tricks I can learn from :-)

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My guess is we will see the bottom in 2-3 years.

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Really enjoyed your video @nealmcspadden

I plotted you housing curve over the 10-2 year treasury. You don't maybe have better data on the housing market?

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Super interesting chart!

The Case-Shiller 10 goes back about a decade longer than the 20. I don't know of any better indices off the top of my head.

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Found the Case-Shiller 10.

Looks like the 1990 and 2000 recession did not really have an impact on the housing market. See some small dip after 1990 but not much after 2000.

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Dang @nealmcspadden I enjoyed this!

Tag me when you make a new post on finance

Definitely going to get corrected, what I cannot figure out is how long and whether the prices will get another crazy up before everything falls apart!

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I think we are in the last gasp right now. Seattle, Manhattan, and Miami are already weakening. The other markets will follow soonish.

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Am seeing similar developments in German cities. Been watching prices for the past 2 years very closely and they are going down!

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Denmark makes sense, a Danish bank is offering mortgages at a 0.5% negative interest rate, meaning it is basically paying people to borrow money.

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Yeah, I had forgotten about that. Crazy times.

People that were warning about the housing bubble in 2005 were not wrong because it blew up in 2007, in fact they were called “fools” for understanding basic economics. You are cheerleading the bubble that followed.

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Thank you for posting from the https://steemleo.com interface 🦁

Its just a matter of time until we see prices pullback. The majority of data is showing us all the signs.

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I was surprised to see how much median incomes have risen over the past 10 years though. I don't think the crash will be as deep as last time.

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Agreed, we don't have the same perfect storm of ingredients as we did last time.