January 15 Wednesday and the start of a new trading week. The weekend went quietly enough and did not affect the market as a whole. But it is worth noting that all the same, at the weekend in some media it was reported that there was a shelling of the US air base in Iraq, but the injured Americans were not found. This raises the question - Why? This is the second such attack and Iran’s incomprehensible threats for me personally.
⚠️According to the statements of the US State Department, the USA will continue to intensify Iran’s diplomatic and economic isolation until they are, I quote "behave like a normal country." My personal opinion is this: At least in the near future, Iran will cease its threats and actions due to the situation with the downed Ukrainian plane. Let me remind you that last week Iran recognized that an Iranian missile shot down a Ukrainian boeing RANDOMLY. The Iranian government said it would hold accountable those responsible. But it doesn’t seem any easier for me ... Kiev re-qualified the Boeing disaster case into an article on intentional murder. Moreover, in Iran, because of the crash of the plane, mass protests are dispersed and I think that the Iranian government is not up to continuing to threaten the United States and Trump. Therefore, in the near future I do not expect strong interference from the Middle East on the global financial market🧐
✅All of the market’s attention is now focused on the signing of Phase 1 between the US and China, which is due to happen on January 15th. Of course, the signing of Phase 1 is definitely positive for the market, but the market has already taken this into account in its value. SP500 continues to renew its highs. Honestly, I do not think that Phase 1 will not be signed, but Trump is Trump. Some sources have already reported📃 that the United States is pushing China to stop purchasing Iranian oil. Whether the conflict will swell from this is not known. Most likely, Trump will return to this after the signing of the agreements. Therefore, we will follow
Of course, I would like Trump to give a shake to the market, so that the SP500 declines for purchases at lower prices. Definitely, if there is a refusal or prolongation of the signing of Phase 1, we should expect the SP500 to fall at least to the level of 3200. In any case, you need to keep abreast and follow the news.